EZCORP (EZCORP) Predictability Rank

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What is EZCORP Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

EZCORP Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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EZCORP (EZCORP) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Credit Services » EZCORP Inc (NAS:EZPW) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

EZ2A:Germany EZ2A:Germany

Address

2500 Bee Cave Road, Suite 200, Building One, Rollingwood, TX, USA, 78746

Website

https://www.ezcorp.com

EZCORP Inc is a United States-based company engaged in offering pawn loans in the United States and Mexico. It also offers short-term unsecured loans and other consumer financial products, and buy and sell second-hand goods. The operating segments of the company are us Pawn, Latin America Pawn, and other international. us Pawn segment includes all pawn activities in the United States. Latin America Pawn segment includes all pawn activities in Mexico and other parts of Latin America. The company generates revenue from merchandise sales, jewelry scrapping sales, and pawn service charges, of which key revenue is derived from the merchandise sales which are primarily collateral forfeited from pawn lending operations and used merchandise purchased from the customers.

Executives

Nicole Swies	officer: Chief Revenue, Operations Off	2500 BEE CAVE ROAD, BLDG. 1, SUITE 200, ROLLINGWOOD TX 78746
Ellen H Bryant	officer: V.P., Deputy General Counsel	2500 BEE CAVE ROAD, BLDG. 1, STE. 200, ROLLINGWOOD TX 78746
Robert J Hicks	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	2500 BEE CAVE ROAD, BLDG. 1, SUITE 200, ROLLINGWOOD TX 78746
Jason A. Kulas	director	C/O EZCORP, INC., 2500 BEE CAVE ROAD, BLDG 1 STE 200, ROLLINGWOOD TX 78746
Lisa Vanroekel	officer: Chief HR Officer	1601 ELM STREET, SUITE 800, DALLAS TX 75201
Sunil Sajnani	officer: VP, Chief Audit Executive	1601 ELM STREET, SUITE 800, DALLAS TX 75201
Timothy Jugmans	officer: Interim CFO	2500 BEE CAVE ROAD, BLDG. 1, SUITE 200, ROLLINGWOOD TX 78746
Fred E. Herman	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	5501 HEADQUARTERS DRIVE, PLANO TX 75024
Hugo R. Dooner	director	2500 BEE CAVE RD, BLDG. 1, SUITE 200, ROLLINGWOOD TX 78746
Wedin Jacob Gustaf Lennart	officer: Chief Product & Process Office	9500 VELETTA PLACE, AUSTIN TX 78735
Powell John Blair Jr.	officer: Chief Customer Service Officer	2500 BEE CAVE ROAD, BLDG. 1, SUITE 200, ROLLINGWOOD TX 78746
Keith John Robertson	officer: Chief Information Officer	2500 BEE CAVE RD., BLD 1 STE 200, ROLLINGWOOD TX 78746
Zena Srivatsa Arnold	director	2500 BEE CAVE ROAD, BLDG. 1, SUITE 200, ROLLINGWOOD TX 78746
Webb Robert W.k.	director	71 SOUTH WACKER DRIVE, 12TH FLOOR, CHICAGO IL 60606
Shelaghmichael C. Brown	director	1511 NANTUCKET, HOUSTON TX 77057