First Bancorp (First Bancorp) Predictability Rank

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What is First Bancorp Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

First Bancorp Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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First Bancorp (First Bancorp) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Banks » First Bancorp (NAS:FBNC) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

300 SW Broad Street, Southern Pines, NC, USA, 28387

Website

https://www.localfirstbank.com

First Bancorp is a bank holding company. The company is engaged in providing banking services such as acceptance of deposits and lending funds to customers for various purposes. It provides checking, savings, and money market accounts, time deposits, including various types of certificates of deposits (CDs) and individual retirement accounts (IRAs). The company also provides loans for various purposes of consumer and commercial purposes, including loans for business, agriculture, real estate, personal uses, home improvement and automobiles. Also, it offers credit cards, debit cards, letters of credit and electronic funds transfer services.

Executives

J Randolph Potter	director	381 HALTON RD., GREENVILLE SC 29607
Elizabeth B Bostian	officer: Chief Financial Officer	2108 CARLISLE ROAD, GREENSBORO NC 27401
Richard H Moore	director	1917 LEWIS CIRCLE, RALEIGH NC 27608
Mclamb Carlie C Jr	director	C/O NEW CENTURY BANK 700 W CUMBERLAND ST, DUNN NC 28334
Michael Goodwin Mayer	officer: President	300 SW BROAD STREET, SOUTHERN PINES NC 28387
Mary Clara Capel	director	P.O. BOX 826, TROY NC 27371
Mason Y Garrett	director	381 HALTON ROAD, GREENVILLE SC 29606
Dexter V Perry	director	111 LYNDENBURY DRIVE, APEX NC 27502
John W Mccauley	director
Gregory A Currie	officer: Chief Banking Officer	204 ELMWOOD DR., GREENSBORO NC 27408
Suzanne S Deferie	director, officer: Regional President	11 CHURCH STREET, ASHEVILLE NC 28801
Crawford James C Iii	director
Frederick Leslie Taylor	director	1207 CEDAR CREEK ROAD, BISCOE NC 27209
Virginia C Thomasson	director
Thomas F Phillips	director