First BanCorp (First BanCorp) Predictability Rank

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What is First BanCorp Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

First BanCorp Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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First BanCorp (First BanCorp) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Banks » First BanCorp (NYSE:FBP) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

OLWN:Germany

Address

1519 Ponce de Leon Avenue, Stop 23, San Juan, PRI, 00908

Website

https://www.1firstbank.com

First BanCorp is a financial holding company. The company's operating segment includes Commercial and Corporate Banking; Mortgage Banking; Consumer (Retail) Banking; Treasury and Investments; United States Operations; and Virgin Islands Operations. It generates maximum revenue from the Consumer (Retail) Banking segment. The Consumer (Retail) Banking segment consists of the Corporation's consumer lending and deposit-taking activities conducted mainly through its branch network and loan centres. Geographically, it derives a majority of revenue from Puerto Rico.

Executives

Carlos Power	officer: EVP	P.O. BOX 9146, SAN JUAN PR 00908-0146
Aurelio Aleman	officer: Executive Vice President	P.O. BOX 9146, SAN JUAN PR 00908-0146
Donald Kafka	officer: Chief Operating Officer	PO BOX 9146, SAN JUAN PR 00908
Nayda Rivera	officer: EVP	PO BOX 9146, SAN JUAN PR 00908 0146
John A. Heffern	director	7 TOFTREES COURT, PRINCETON NJ 08540
Tracey A Dedrick	director	C/O HUDSON CITY BANCORP, INC., PARAMUS NJ 07652
Daniel Edward Frye	director	5 APPLEWOOD CIRCLE, EASTSANDWICH MA 02537
Gonzalez Orlando Berges	officer: EVP and CFO	PO BOX 9146, SAN JUAN PR 00908-0146
Roberto R Herencia	director	P.O. BOX 9146, SAN JUAN PR 00908
Patricia Eaves	director	PO BOX 9146, SAN JUAN PR 00908
Said Ortiz	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	PO BOX 9146, SAN JUAN PR 00908
Jose Maria Lacasa	officer: EVP	PO BOX 9146, SAN JUAN PR 00908
Lilian Diaz-bento	officer: EVP	PO BOX 9146, SAN JUAN PR 00908
Juan Carlos Pavia	officer: EVP, Chief Credit Officer	PO BOX 9146, SAN JUAN PR 00908
Sara Alvarez-cabrero	officer: EVP, General Counsel	PO BOX 9146, SAN JUAN PR 00908