What is FirstCash Holdings Predictability Rank?
2.5 (5)
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
FirstCash Holdings Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
FirstCash Holdings (FirstCash Holdings) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
1600 West 7th Street, Fort Worth, TX, USA, 76102
FirstCash Holdings Inc operates pawn stores in the United States and Latin America. Its primary business involves making small loans secured by personal property. These pawn loans give the borrower the option of either repaying the loans with interest or forfeiting the property without further penalty. Close to 30% of total company revenue comes from interest earned on the loans. Close to 70% of total revenue comes from reselling forfeited property in the company's retail stores. Revenue is split almost equally between loans made in the United States, where the company has more than 300 retail locations, and loans made in Latin America, where the company has over 700 locations in Mexico and several more in Guatemala.
Executives
| R Douglas Orr |
officer: EVP & Chief Financial Officer |
1600 WEST 7TH STREET, FORT WORTH TX 76102 |
| Douglas Richard Rippel |
director, 10 percent owner |
8425 MYSTIC LAKES, MAIZE KS 67101 |
| Randel G Owen |
director |
C/O EMERGENCY MEDICAL SERVICES CORP, 6200 SOUTH SYRACUSE WAY, GREENWOOD VILLAGE CO 80111 |
| Howard F Hambleton |
officer: AFF President |
1660 WEST 7TH ST., FORT WORTH TX 76102 |
| Raul Ramos |
officer: SVP Latin American Operations |
1600 WEST 7TH STREET, FORT WORTH TX 76102 |
| James H Graves |
director |
ERWIN GRAVES & ASSOCIATES, 2100 MCKINNEY AVE STE 900, DALLAS TX 75205 |
| Marthea Davis |
director |
1600 WEST 7TH ST., FORT WORTH TX 76102 |
| Douglas R. Rippel Revocable Trust |
10 percent owner |
7570 W. 21ST STREET N, BUILDING 1010, SUITE C, WICHITA KS 67205 |
| Aff Services, Inc. |
10 percent owner |
7570 W. 21ST STREET N, BUILDING 1010, SUITE C, WICHITA KS 67205 |
| Paula K Garrett |
director |
1600 WEST 7TH ST, FORT WORTH TX 76102 |
| Mikel D Faulkner |
director |
180 STATE STREET 200, SOUTHLAKE TX 76092 |
| Daniel R Feehan |
director |
CASH AMERICA INTL INC, 1600 W &TH ST, FORT WORTH TX 76102 |
| Thomas Brent Stuart |
officer: President and COO |
1600 W. 7TH STREET, FORT WORTH TX 76102 |
| Anna M Alvarado |
officer: General Counsel |
1600 WEST 7TH STREET, FORT WORTH TX 76102 |
| Daniel E Berce |
director |
801 CHERRY STREET, SUITE 3900, C/O GM FINANCIAL COMPANY, INC., FORT WORTH TX 76102 |
Quick Browse
Personalize
Premium Gurus 
Create New Portfolio
Portfolio Contest
FCFS has been successfully added to your