Civista Bancshares (Civista Bancshares) Predictability Rank

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What is Civista Bancshares Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Civista Bancshares Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Civista Bancshares Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Civista Bancshares (Civista Bancshares) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Banks » Civista Bancshares Inc (NAS:CIVB) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

100 East Water Street, P.O. Box 5016, Sandusky, OH, USA, 44870

Website

https://www.civb.com

Civista Bancshares Inc is a financial holding company. Operating through its subsidiary, it engages in the business of community banking. Its business activity involves collecting customer deposits, making loans, purchasing securities, and offering trust services to its clients. The company's loan portfolio includes commercial and agriculture, commercial real estate-owner occupied, commercial real estate non-owner occupied, residential real estate, real estate construction, and consumer loans. Majority of its revenues are derived from the interest and fees gained on loans.

Executives

Gerald B Wurm	other: Affiliate Director	100 EAST WATER STREET, SANDUSKY OH 44870
Darci L Congrove	director	756 JAEGER STREET, COLUMBUS OH 43206
Mark J. Macioce	director	10585 WYNDTREE DRIVE, CONCORD TOWNSHIP OH 44077
Nathan E Weaks	other: Subsidiary Director	1514 COUNTY ROAD 4-1, SWANTON OH 43558
Julie A Mattlin	director	6368 COOK ROAD, GUILFORD IN 47022
Allen R Nickles	director	100 EAST WATER STREET, SANDUSKY OH 44870
Lorina W Wise	director	9224 JACKIES BEND, REYNOLDSBURG OH 43068
William F Ritzmann	director	19813 LAKEVIEW DRIVE, LAWRENCEBURG IN 47025
Perfect Clyde A Jr	other: Subsidiary Director	20760 MOUNT PLEASANT ROAD, LAWRENCEBURG IN 47025
Edwards Russell L Jr	officer: Senior Vice President	3630 LUDGATE ROAD, SHAKER HEIGHTS OH 44120
Kessler Carl A Iii	officer: Senior Vice President	4529 SECRETARIAT COURT, AVON OH 44011
Curry Robert L Jr	officer: Senior Vice President	720 JASMINE AVENUE, MARBLEHEAD OH 43440-1844
Harry Singer	other: Subsidiary Director	5309 GOLFWAY LANE, LYNDHURST OH 44124
Barry W Boerger	director	12175 URBANNA WOODSTOCK PK, MILFORD CENTER OH 43045
Murray Dennis E Jr	director	2035 CEDAR POINT ROAD, SANDUSKY OH 44870