FirstEnergy (FirstEnergy) Predictability Rank

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What is FirstEnergy Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

FirstEnergy Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

FirstEnergy Predictability Rank Related Terms

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FirstEnergy (FirstEnergy) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Utilities » Utilities - Regulated » FirstEnergy Corp (NYSE:FE) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

ETR DTE ES PPL AEE WEC CNP CMS EIX XEL NEE SO DUK LSE:NG. AEP PCG D BOM:532555 EXC PEG

Traded in Other Exchanges

FE7:Germany

Address

76 South Main Street, Akron, OH, USA, 44308

Website

https://www.firstenergycorp.com

FirstEnergy is an investor-owned holding company with 10 regulated distribution utilities across six mid-Atlantic and Midwestern states. FirstEnergy also owns and operates one of the nation's largest electric transmission systems.

Executives

Christine Walker	officer: VP, Human Resources	76 SOUTH MAIN STREET, AKRON OH 44308
Brian X Tierney	director, officer: President and CEO	76 S. MAIN ST., AKRON OH 44308
Jana T Croom	director	1205 KIMBALL BLVD., JASPER IN 47546
Sean Klimczak	director	C/O THE BLACKSTONE GROUP, 345 PARK AVE., NEW YORK NY 10154
Paul J Kaleta	director	P O BOX 30150, RENO NV 89520
Lisa Winston Hicks	director	76 S. MAIN ST, AKRON OH 44308
Melvin D. Williams	director	76 SOUTH MAIN STREET, AKRON OH 44308
Jesse Lynn	director	C/O ICAHN ENTERPRISES L.P., 16690 COLLINS AVE., PH, SUNNY ISLES FL 33160
Andrew Teno	director	C/O FIR TREE INC., 55 WEST 46TH STREET, 29TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10036
Somerhalder John W Ii	director, officer: Vice Chair & Exec Director	76 SOUTH MAIN STREET, AKRON OH 44308
Hyun Park	officer: SVP & CLO	76 SOUTH MAIN STREET, AKRON OH 44308
Christopher D Pappas	director	C/O 76 SOUTH MAIN STREET, AKRON OH 44308
Leila L Vespoli	officer: Sr. Vice Pres & Gen. Counsel	C/O FIRSTENERGY CORP, 76 SOUTH MAIN STREET, AKRON OH 44308
James F Pearson	officer: Treasurer	76 SOUTH MAIN STREET, AKRON OH 44308
Leslie M Turner	director	THE HERSHEY COMPANY, 100 CRYSTAL A DRIVE, HERSHEY PA 17036