What is FBL Financial Group Predictability Rank?
Not Rated
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
FBL Financial Group Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
FBL Financial Group (FBL Financial Group) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
5400 University Avenue, West Des Moines, IA, USA, 50266-5997
FBL Financial Group Inc is an American financial services company. The group has three subsidiaries: Farm Bureau Life Insurance Company, Greenfields Life Insurance Company, Farm Bureau Property and Casualty Insurance Company, and Western Agricultural Insurance Company. Farm Bureau Life Insurance Company offers various lines of life insurance, annuity, and investment products. Greenfields Life Insurance Company offers a wide range of life insurance, annuity, and investment products. Farm Bureau Property and Casualty Insurance Company and Western Agricultural Insurance Company offer full lines of personal and commercial property-casualty insurance products.
Executives
| Paul A. Juffer |
director |
5942 BEECHTREE DRIVE WEST DES MOINES IA 50266 |
| Bryan Searle |
director |
275 TIERRA VISTA DRIVE POCATELLO ID 83201 |
| Daniel M Koster |
officer: VP - Marketing and Agency Svcs |
5400 UNIVERSITY AVENUE WEST DES MOINES IA 50266 |
| Anthony James Aldridge |
officer: Chief Accounting Officer |
5400 UNIVERSITY AVENUE WEST DES MOINES IA 50266 |
| Jeffrey A Whitehead |
officer: Chief Investment Officer |
5400 UNIVERSITY AVENUE WEST DES MOINES IA 50266 |
| Ronald L Mead |
officer: VP - Sales and Distribution |
5400 UNIVERSITY AVENUE WEST DES MOINES IA 50266 |
| Casey Decker |
officer: Chief Information Officer |
5400 UNIVERSITY AVENUE WEST DES MOINES IA 50266 |
| Richard Wayne Felts |
director |
2627 KFB PLAZA MANHATTAN KS 66503 |
| Jay W Seiboldt |
officer: Chief Operating Officer - PC |
5400 UNIVERSITY AVENUE WEST DES MOINES IA 50266 |
| Nicholas C. Gerhart |
officer: Chief Administrative Officer |
5400 UNIVERSITY AVENUE WEST DES MOINES IA 50266 |
| Raymond Walter Wasilewski |
officer: Senior Vice President |
5400 UNIVERSITY AVENUE WEST DES MOINES IA 50265 |
| Daniel D Pitcher |
director, officer: Chief Executive Officer |
5400 UNIVERSITY AVENUE WEST DES MOINES IA 50266 |
| Charles Happel |
officer: Chief Investment Officer |
5400 UNIVERSITY AVENUE WEST DES MOINES IA 50266 |
| Donald Seibel |
officer: CFO & Treasurer |
5400 UNIVERSITY AVENUE WEST DES MOINES IA 50266 |
| James Brannen |
officer: CEO Emeritus |
5400 UNIVERSITY AVENUE, WEST DES MOINES IA 50266 |
Quick Browse
Personalize
Premium Gurus 
Create New Portfolio
Portfolio Contest
FFG has been successfully added to your