Flushing Financial (Flushing Financial) Predictability Rank

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What is Flushing Financial Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Flushing Financial Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Flushing Financial (Flushing Financial) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Banks » Flushing Financial Corp (NAS:FFIC) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

FL8:Germany

Address

220 RXR Plaza, Uniondale, NY, USA, 11556

Website

https://www.flushingbank.com

Flushing Financial Corp operates as a bank holding company, which is engaged in the provision of banking and financial services. The bank serves consumers, businesses, professionals, corporate clients, and public entities by offering a full complement of deposit, loan, equipment finance, and cash management services through its banking offices. Its principal business is attracting retail deposits from the general public and investing those deposits together with funds generated from ongoing operations and borrowings, primarily in originations and purchases of multi-family residential properties, commercial business loans, commercial real estate mortgage loans, construction loans, small business administration loans and other small business loans.

Executives

Steven J Diorio	director	220 RXR PLAZA, UNIONDALE NY 11556
Maria A Grasso	officer: Executive VP & COO	220 RXR PLAZA, UNIONDALE NY 11556
Louis C Grassi	director	220 RXR PLAZA, UNIONDALE NY 11556
Francis W Korzekwinski	officer: Senior Vice President	220 RXR PLAZA, UNIONDALE NY 11556
Theresa Kelly	officer: Senior Vice President	220 RXR PLAZA, UNIONDALE NY 11556
Douglas J Mcclintock	officer: SEVP	220 RXR PLAZA, UNIONDALE NY 11556
John R Buran	officer: Executive Vice President & COO	220 RXR PLAZA, UNIONDALE NY 11556
Susan Cullen	officer: Executive Vice President	220 RXR PLAZA, UNIONDALE NY 11556
Thomas Buonaiuto	officer: Senior Executive Vice Presiden	ONE SUFFOLK SQUARE, 1601 VETERANS MEMORIAL HWY, ISLANDIA NY 11749
Douglas C Manditch	director	ONE SUFFOLK SQUARE, 1601 VETERANS MEMORIAL HWY, ISLANDIA NY 11749
Michael A Azarian	director	220 RXR PLAZA, UNIONDALE NY 11556
Han Sam Sang Ki	director	220 RXR PLAZA, UNIONDALE NY 11556
Donna M Obrien	director	220 RXR PLAZA, UNIONDALE NY 11556
Roe John E Sr	director	220 RXR PLAZA, UNIONDALE NY 11556
James Davison Bennett	director	220 RXR PLAZA, UNIONDALE NY 11556