First Interstate BancSystem (First Interstate BancSystem) Predictability Rank

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What is First Interstate BancSystem Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

First Interstate BancSystem Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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First Interstate BancSystem (First Interstate BancSystem) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Banks » First Interstate BancSystem Inc (NAS:FIBK) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

4FB:Germany

Address

401 North 31st Street, Billings, MT, USA, 59101

Website

https://www.fibk.com

First Interstate BancSystem Inc is a financial holding company. It is the parent company of First Interstate Bank, a community bank offering a range of internet, mobile, and other banking and financial services throughout Idaho, Montana, Oregon, South Dakota, Washington, and Wyoming. It delivers a range of financial products and services to both retail and commercial customers in industries like agriculture, construction, education, energy, governmental services, healthcare, mining, professional services, retail, tourism, and wholesale trade. It generates a majority of income from interest charged on loans, and interest and dividends earned on investments.

Executives

Homer Scott Jr Trust, Homer Scott Jr. & First Interstate Wealth Management Co Trustees	10 percent owner	FIRST INTERSTATE BANK, TRUSTEE, PO BOX 2007, SHERIDAN WY 82801
Julie A Scott	10 percent owner	P O BOX 30918, BILLINGS MT 59116
Jonathan R Scott	director	P.O. BOX 30918, BILLINGS MT 59116
Kevin P Riley	officer: President & CEO	BERKSHIRE HILLS BANCORP INC, 24 NORTH STREET, PITTSFIELD MA 01201
Marcy D Mutch	officer: Exec. Vice Pres. & CFO	PO BOX 30918, BILLINGS MT 59116
Kirk D Jensen	officer: General Counsel	PO BOX 30918, BILLINGS MT 59116
Lorrie Asker	officer: Chief Banking Officer	401 N. 31ST STREET, BILLINGS MT 59116-0918
James Brannen	director	5400 UNIVERSITY AVENUE, WEST DES MOINES IA 50266
Ashley Hayslip	officer: EVP, Chief Banking Officer	P.O. BOX 30918, BILLINGS MT 59116
Scott James R. Jr	director	PO BOX 30918, BILLINGS MT 59116
Russell A Lee	officer: EVP & Chief Banking Officer	P.O. BOX 30918, BILLINGS MT 59116
James R Scott	director, 10 percent owner	C/O FIRST INTERSTATE BANCSYSTEM INC, P O BOX 30918, BILLINGS MT 59116
Heyneman John M Jr	director, 10 percent owner	C/O FIRST INTERSTATE BANCSYSTEM INC, P O BOX 30918, BILLINGS MT 59116
Kristina Robbins	officer: SVP, Chief Operations Officer	PO BOX 30918, BILLINGS MT 59116
Philip G Gaglia	officer: Chief Risk Officer	PO BOX 30918, BILLINGS MT 59116