Standard BioTools (Standard BioTools) Predictability Rank

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What is Standard BioTools Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Standard BioTools Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Standard BioTools Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Standard BioTools (Standard BioTools) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Medical Diagnostics & Research » Standard BioTools Inc (NAS:LAB) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

FLB:Germany FLB:Germany

Address

2 Tower Place, Suite 2000, South San Francisco, CA, USA, 94080

Website

https://www.standardbio.com

Standard BioTools Inc manufactures life science tools focused on the analysis of single cells and industrial applications of genomics. The company's segments include Proteomics and Genomics. It generates maximum revenue from the Proteomics segment. Geographically, it derives a majority of its revenue from the Americas.

Executives

Martin D Madaus	director	290 CONCORD ROAD, BILLERICA MA 01821
Jeffrey G. Black	officer: SVP & Chief Financial Officer	4955 DIRECTORS PLACE, SAN DIEGO CA 92121
Eli Casdin	director, 10 percent owner	1350 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, SUITE 1140, NEW YORK NY 10019
Casdin Partners Master Fund, L.p.	director, 10 percent owner	WALKER HOUSE, 87 MARY STREET, GEORGE TOWN E9 KY1-9001
Casdin Partners Fo1-msv, Lp	director	C/O CASDIN PARTNERS GP, LLC, 1350 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, SUITE 2600, NEW YORK NY 10019
Casdin Private Growth Equity Fund Ii Gp, Llc	director	1350 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, SUITE 2600, NEW YORK NY 10019
Casdin Partners Gp, Llc	director, 10 percent owner	1350 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, SUITE 1140, NEW YORK NY 10019
Casdin Capital, Llc	director, 10 percent owner	1350 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, SUITE 2600, NEW YORK NY 10019
Casdin Private Growth Equity Fund Ii, L.p.	director	1350 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, SUITE 2600, NEW YORK NY 10019
Fenel M Eloi	director	C/O INTERLEUKIN GENETICS INC, 135 BEAVER STREET, WALTHAM MA 02452
Caligan Partners Lp	10 percent owner	515 MADISON AVENUE, 8TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Frank Witney	director	940 WINTER STREET, C/O PERKINELMER, WALTHAM MA 02451
Jeremy Steven Davis	officer: SVP Chief Commercial Officer	C/O FLUIDIGM CORPORATION, 2 TOWER PLACE, SUITE 2000, SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080
Hanjoon Alex Kim	officer: Chief Operating Officer	C/O FLUIDIGM CORPORATION, 2 TOWER PLACE, SUITE 2000, SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080
Michael Egholm	director, officer: President & CEO	1 FRANKLIN STREET, UNIT 3104, BOSTON MA 02110