First Mid Bancshares (First Mid Bancshares) Predictability Rank

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What is First Mid Bancshares Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

First Mid Bancshares Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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First Mid Bancshares (First Mid Bancshares) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Banks » First Mid Bancshares Inc (NAS:FMBH) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

1421 Charleston Avenue, Mattoon, IL, USA, 61938

Website

https://www.firstmid.com

First Mid Bancshares Inc is a United States based financial holding company. Through its wholly-owned subsidiary, First Mid Bank, it is primarily engaged in the business of banking. It also provides data processing services to affiliates and insurance products and services to customers through its subsidiary. The company's operations cover community banking, wealth management and insurance services. Key revenue is derived from the provision of community banking services.

Executives

Todd J James	director	400 BROAD ST, BELOITT WI 53511
Clay M Dean	officer: SVP-Chief Deposit Services	2816 WESTERN AVE, MATTOON IL 61938
Robert S Cook	director	631 S BODIN ST, HINSDALE IL 60521
Laura J Hughes	officer: EVP, Chief Marketing & Deposit	1251 DEER CREEK RDG, DUBUQUE IA 52003
Bradley L Beesley	officer: Executive VP-Wealth Management	1906 SUNSET AVE, EFFINGHAM IL 62401
James Kyle Mccurry	director	302 CAMPUSVIEW DRIVE, SUITE 108, COLUMBIA MO 65201
Gisele A Marcus	director	3827 SHAW BOULEVARD, ST. LOUIS MO 63110
Megan E Mcelwee	officer: SVP, Chief Credit Officer	18537 E COUNTY ROAD 1280N, CHARLESTON IL 61920
Anya Y Schuetz	officer: VP, Director of Project Mgmt	2119 REYNOLDS DRIVE, CHARLESTON IL 61938
Jordan D. Read	officer: SVP, Chief Risk Officer	1713 CHANDLER WAY, ST. CHARLES MO 63303
Rhonda G Gatons	officer: SVP, Director Human Resources	909 E 625 NORTH ROAD, TOWER HILL IL 62571
Ray A Sparks	director	30 S COUNTRY CLUB RD, MATTOON IL 61938
David R. Hiden	officer: SVP, Chief Information Officer	1421 CHARLESTON AVE, MATTOON IL 61938
Zachary Horn	director	8 SOUTH WASHINGTON STREET, SULLIVAN IL 61951
Mary Westerhold	director	6814 GOSHEN ROAD, EDWARDSVILLE IL 62025