What is Finisar Predictability Rank?
Not Rated
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Finisar Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Finisar (Finisar) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
1389 Moffett Park Drive, Sunnyvale, CA, USA, 94089
Founded in 1987, Finisar is a California-based large provider of fiber optical modules and components that are used in data communications and telecommunications. Its products include transceivers and wavelength switches for data center interconnects, and intracity/metro and long-haul communications. Finisar sells to manufacturers of storage systems and network equipment and their OEMs, which in turn sell to telecom service providers and cloud vendors.
Executives
| Michael L Dreyer |
director |
C/O F5 NETWORKS, INC., 401 ELLIOTT AVE. WEST, SEATTLE WA 98119 |
| Michael C Child |
director |
125 HIGH ST STE 2500, BOSTON MA 02110 |
| Thomas E Pardun |
director |
C/O WESTERN DIGITAL CORPORATION, 3355 MICHELSON DR, SUITE 100, IRVINE CA 92612 |
| Helene Simonet |
director |
|
| Jerry S Rawls |
director |
1308 MOFFETT PARK DRIVE, SUNNYVALE CA 94089-1133 |
| Robert Stephens |
director |
3102 MONTANA DEL SOL, SAN CLEMENTE CA 92673 |
| Kurt Adzema |
officer: EVP & Chief Financial Officer |
1389 MOFFETT PARK DRIVE, SUNNYVALE CA 94089 |
| Michael E. Hurlston |
director, officer: CEO |
5300 CALIFORNIA AVENUE, IRVINE CA 92617 |
| Eitan Gertel |
director, officer: CEO |
11780 U.S. HIGHWAY 1, SUITE 600, PALM BEACH GARDENS FL 33408 |
| Dominique Trempont |
director |
5 RANDALL PLACE, MENLO PARK CA 94025 |
| Christopher J Crespi |
director |
C/O SIRENZA MICRODEVICES, INC., 303 SOUTH TECHNOLOGY COURT, BROOMFIELD CO 80021 |
| Morgan M Jones |
director |
C/O BATTERY VENTURES, 20 WILLIAM ST STE 200, WELLESLEY MA 02481 |
| Frank H Levinson |
director |
3736 FALLON ROAD #428, DUBLIN CA 94568 |
| Harold Hughes |
director |
C/O RAMBUS INC., 1050 ENTERPRISE WAY, SUITE 700, SUNNYVALE CA 94089 |
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