Friedman Industries (Friedman Industries) Predictability Rank

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What is Friedman Industries Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Friedman Industries Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Friedman Industries (Friedman Industries) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Basic Materials » Steel » Friedman Industries Inc (AMEX:FRD) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

X36:Germany

Address

1121 Judson Road, Suite 124, Longview, TX, USA, 75601

Website

https://www.friedmanindustries.com

Friedman Industries Inc is engaged in the manufacturing and processing of steel products. The company's operating segments include Coil Products and Tubular Products. It generates maximum revenue from the Coil Products segment. The company's products and services include Temper Pass, Cut-To-Length, Whole Coils, Toll Processing, Electric Resistance Welded Pipe (ERW), New Mill Secondary, and Pipe Finishing Services.

Executives

Max Alan Reichenthal	director	865 LOCKWOOD DRIVE, HOUSTON TX 77020
Joel Spira	director	THREE GREENWAY PLAZA, SUITE 1750, HOUSTON TX 77046
Mike J Taylor	director	P.O. BOX 2192, LONGVIEW TX 75606
Sharon L Taylor	director	4200 B STONE RD, KILGORE TX 75662
Alex Larue	officer: VP - Secretary & Treasurer	7 PEBBLE CREEK DRIVE NORTH, LONGVIEW TX 75605
Durga D Agrawal	director	2921 UNIVERSITY BLVD, HOUSTON TX 77005
Sandra Kay Scott	director	11503 BISTRO LANE, HOUSTON TX 77082
Joe L Williams	director	P.O. BOX 1587, HOUSTON TX 77251
Tim Scott Stevenson	director	PO BOX 2192, LONGVIEW TX 75606
Robert Sparkman	officer: President & COO	P.O. BOX 2192, LONGVIEW TX 75605
Charles W Hall	director	1301 MCKINNEY STE 5100, HOUSTON TX 77010
Benny Harper	officer: Sr. VP-Finance	1301 MCKINNEY STE 5100, HOUSTON TX 77010
William E Crow	director, officer: President and CEO	P.O. BOX 1587, HOUSTON TX 77251
Hershel M Rich	director	P.O. BOX 1587, HOUSTON TX 77251
Harold Friedman	director, 10 percent owner, officer: Vice Chairman of the Board	4001 HOMESTEAD ROAF, HOUSTON TX 77028