Freshpet (Freshpet) Predictability Rank

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What is Freshpet Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Freshpet Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Freshpet (Freshpet) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Defensive » Consumer Packaged Goods » Freshpet Inc (NAS:FRPT) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

7FP:Germany

Address

400 Plaza Drive, 1st Floor, Secaucus, NJ, USA, 07094

Website

https://www.freshpet.com

Freshpet Inc manufactures and markets natural fresh meals and treats for dogs and cats. The Company's products are distributed throughout the United States, Canada and other international markets, into major retail classes including Grocery (including online), Mass and Club, Pet Specialty, and Natural retail. The company's products include Nature's Fresh, Deli Fresh, Vital, and Freshpet among others.

Executives

Stephen Macchiaverna	officer: EVP, Secretary & Treasurer	C/O FRESHPET, INC., 400 PLAZA DRIVE, 1ST FLOOR, SECAUCUS NJ 07094
Nishu D. Patel	officer: Vice President and Controller	C/O FRESHPET, INC., 400 PLAZA DRIVE, 1ST FLOOR, SECAUCUS NJ 07094
Walter N. George	director	4100 N. MULBERRY DRIVE, SUITE 200, KANSAS CITY MO 64116
David J West	director	100 CRYSTAL A DRIVE, HERSHEY PA 17033
David Biegger	director	ONE CAMPBELL PLACE, CAMDEN NJ 08103
Cathal Walsh	officer: See Remarks	C/O FRESHPET, INC., 400 PLAZA DRIVE, 1ST FLOOR, SECAUCUS NJ 07094
Todd E Cunfer	officer: Chief Financial Officer	1225 17TH STREET, SUITE 1000, DENVER CO 80202
Stephen Weise	officer: EVp of Manufg & Supply Chain	C/O FRESHPET, INC., 400 PLAZA DRIVE, 1ST FLOOR, SECAUCUS NJ 07094
J David Basto	director	C/O FRESHPET, INC., 400 PLAZA DRIVE, 1ST FLOOR, SECAUCUS NJ 07094
Charles A Norris	director, 10 percent owner	481 DENSLOW AVE, LOS ANGELES CA 90049
William B. Cyr	officer: Chief Executive Officer	C/O FRESHPET, INC., 400 PLAZA DRIVE, 1ST FLOOR, SECAUCUS NJ 07094
Scott James Morris	officer: Chief Marketing Officer	C/O FRESHPET, INC., 400 PLAZA DRIVE, 1ST FLOOR, SECAUCUS NJ 07094
Ivan Garcia	officer: VP of Finance & Controller	C/O FRESHPET, INC., 400 PLAZA DRIVE, 1ST FLOOR, SECAUCUS NJ 07094
Craig D. Steeneck	director	13665 VANDERBILT DRIVE, UNIT 704, NAPLES FL 34110
Daryl G Brewster	director	KRISPY KREME DOUGHNUTS, INC., 370 KNOLLWOOD STREET, SUITE 500, WINSTON-SALEM NC 27103