First Trust Highome Long/Short Fund (First Trust Highome Long/Short Fund) Predictability Rank

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What is First Trust Highome Long/Short Fund Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

First Trust Highome Long/Short Fund Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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First Trust Highome Long/Short Fund (First Trust Highome Long/Short Fund) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Asset Management » First Trust High Income Long/Short Fund (NYSE:FSD) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

120 East Liberty Drive, Suite 400, Wheaton, IL, USA, 60187

Website

https://www.ftportfolios.com

First Trust High Income Long/Short Fund is a diversified, closed-end management investment company based in the United States. The fund's objective is to provide a high current income to its investors. Its secondary objective is capital appreciation. It seeks to achieve its objectives by investing in a diversified portfolio in the United States. The fund holds an interest in various sectors, such as basic industry, healthcare, capital goods, telecommunications, automotive, banking, media, energy, leisure, insurance, technology and electronics, transportation, financial services and others.

Executives

Bronwyn Wright	director	FIRST TRUST ADVISORS L.P., 120 EAST LIBERTY DRIVE, SUITE 400, WHEATON IL 60187
Cameron S White	other: Portfolio Manager Sub-Advisor	MACKAY SHIELDS, 1345 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK NY 10105
M Keefe Denise	director	C/O FIRST TRUST ADVISORS L.P., 120 EAST LIBERTY DRIVE, SUITE 400, WHEATON IL 60187
Eric Gold	other: Portfolio Manager Sub-Advisor	C/O MACKAY SHIELDS LLC, 1345 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK NY 10105
Kelly Catherine Dehler	other: Officer - Investment Advisor	C/O FIRST TRUST ADVISORS L.P., 120 EAST LIBERTY DRIVE, SUITE 400, WHEATON IL 60187
Scott Michael Friske	other: Officer - Investment Advisor	FIRST TRUST ADVISORS L.P., 120 EAST LIBERTY DRIVE, SUITE 400, WHEATON IL 60187
Shu Yang Tan	other: Portfolio Mgr. Sub-Advisor	MACKAY SHIELDS LLC, 1345 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, 43RD FL, NEW YORK NY 10105
Matthew Lowry Jacob	other: Portfolio Mgr. Sub-Advisor	MACKAY SHIELDS LLC, 1345 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, 43RD FL, NEW YORK NY 10105
Joseph Raymond Cantwell	other: Portfolio Mgr. Sub-Advisor	ALCENTRA NY, LLC, 200 PARK AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10106
Saba Capital Management, L.p.	10 percent owner	405 LEXINGTON AVENUE, 58TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10174
Boaz Weinstein	10 percent owner	405 LEXINGTON AVENUE, 58TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10174
David Mcgarel	other: Officer - Investment Adviser	C/O FIRST TRUST ADVISORS LP, 120 EAST LIBERTY DRIVE, SUITE 400, WHEATON IL 60187
James A Bowen	director, officer: President, other: Officer - Investment Adviser	C/O FIRST TRUST ADVISORS LP, 120 EAST LIBERTY DRIVE, SUITE 400, WHEATON IL 60187
Louis N. Cohen	other: Member of Investment Team	MACKAY SHIELDS LLC, 1345 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK NY 10105
Shane Shannon	officer: Assistant Secretary	FIRST TRUST ADVISORS L.P., 120 EAST LIBERTY DRIVE, SUITE 400, WHEATON IL 60187