H.B. Fuller Co (H.B. Fuller Co) Predictability Rank

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What is H.B. Fuller Co Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

H.B. Fuller Co Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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H.B. Fuller Co (H.B. Fuller Co) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Basic Materials » Chemicals » H.B. Fuller Co (NYSE:FUL) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

HB1:Germany

Address

1200 Willow Lake Boulevard, P.O. Box 64683, Saint Paul, MN, USA, 55110-5101

Website

https://www.hbfuller.com

H.B. Fuller Co manufactures and sells adhesives, sealants, and other chemical-based products. The company organizes itself into three business units: constructions, engineering, and hygiene, health and consumable adhesives. It generates the most revenue from hygiene, health and consumable adhesives. This business manufactures and supplies adhesives products in the assembly, packaging, converting, nonwoven and hygiene, health and beauty, flexible packaging, graphic arts, and envelope markets. The company generates around half of its revenue in the United States, with the remainder spread across 35 countries. The company has put an emphasis on environmentally friendly products, aligning with a trend of environmental, social, and governance investing.

Executives

Gregory O. Ogunsanya	officer: Sr. VP, GC and Corp Secretary	1200 WILLOW LAKE BLVD., P.O. BOX 64683, ST. PAUL MN 55110
Traci L Jensen	officer: VP, Americas Adhesives	1200 WILLOW LAKE BOULEVARD, P.O. BOX 64683, ST. PAUL MN 55164-0683
Robert J Martsching	officer: VP, Corporate Controller	1200 WILLOW LAKE BLVD., P.O. BOX 64683, ST. PAUL MN 55110
Timothy J Keenan	officer: Gen'l Counsel, Corp Secretary	1200 WILLOW LAKE BOULEVARD, P.O. BOX 64683, ST. PAUL MN 55164-0683
Heather Campe	officer: VP, Asia Pacific	1200 WILLOW LAKE BLVD, P.O. BOX 64683, ST. PAUL MN 55110
Charles T Lauber	director	A. O. SMITH CORPORATION, 500 TENNESSEE WALTZ PARKWAY, ASHLAND CITY TN 37015
James J. East	officer: Senior Vice President, HHC	1200 WILLOW LAKE BLVD., P.O. BOX 64683, ST. PAUL MN 55110
James Owens	officer: Senior VP, North America	1200 WILLOW LAKE BOULEVARD, P.O. BOX 64683, ST. PAUL MN 55164-0683
Zhiwei Cai	officer: Sr.VP. Engineering Adhesives	1200 WILLOW LAKE BLVD., P.O. BOX 64683, ST. PAUL MN 55110
Nathan D. Weaver	officer: VP, Human Resources	1200 WILLOW LAKE BLVD., P.O. BOX 64683, ST. PAUL MN 55110
Srilata Zaheer	director	1200 WILLOW LAKE BLVD., P.O. BOX 64683, ST. PAUL MN 55110
Celeste Beeks Mastin	officer: Executive VP and COO	21 ERIE STREET, CAMBRIDGE MA 02139
Michael J Happe	director	P.O. BOX 152, FOREST CITY IA 50436
Rasmussen Trangsrud Teresa J	director	1200 WILLOW LAKE BLVD., P.O. BOX 64683, ST. PAUL MN 55110
Van Sant R William	director	PO BOX 1441, MINNEAPOLIS MN 55440-1441