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Fox Chase Bancorp (Fox Chase Bancorp) Predictability Rank


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What is Fox Chase Bancorp Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.


Fox Chase Bancorp Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Fox Chase Bancorp Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Fox Chase Bancorp (Fox Chase Bancorp) Business Description

Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
Fox Chase Bancorp Inc is a Maryland corporation that was incorporated in March 2010. The Bank operates as a community-oriented financial institution offering traditional financial services to consumers and businesses in its market areas. The Bank attracts deposits from the general public and uses those funds to originate one- to four-family real estate, multi-family and commercial real estate, construction, commercial and consumer loans, which the Bank generally holds for investment. The largest segment of its loan portfolio is multi-family and commercial real estate loans. It offers fixed-rate and adjustable-rate mortgage loans secured by multi-family and commercial real estate to individuals and small businesses in its main market areas. Its multi-family and commercial real estate loans are generally secured by condominiums, apartment buildings and mixed-use properties with residential units, as well as office and retail space. It originates multi-family and commercial real estate loans with terms of up to 25 years. The second largest segment of its loan portfolio is residential mortgage loans, which enable borrowers to purchase or refinance existing homes, which are owner occupied. It offer fixed-rate and adjustable-rate loans with terms up to 30 years. It also offers commercial and industrial loans to professionals, sole proprietorships and small and mid-size businesses in its market area. It offers variety of consumer loans, including home equity loans and lines of credit, loans to individuals to purchase insurance policies, loans secured by certificate of deposits (share loans) and unsecured overdraft lines of credit. It competes with various financial institutions and credit unions operating in its market areas and, to a lesser extent, from other financial service companies such as brokerage firms and insurance companies. Its competition for loans comes mainly from financial institutions in its market areas, and, to a lesser extent, from other financial service providers such as mortgage companies, mortgage brokers and credit unions. As a savings and loan holding company, it is subject to Federal Reserve Board regulations, examinations, supervision, reporting requirements and regulations concerning its activities.
Executives
Thomas M Petro director, officer: President and CEO 14 NORTH MAIN STREET, PO BOX197, SOUDERTON PA 18964
Randall J Mcgarry officer: Sr. VP Chief Info. Officer 4390 DAVISVILLE ROAD, HATBORO PA 19040
Roger S Deacon officer: EVP and CFO 14 NORTH MAIN STREET, PO BOX 197, SOUDERTON PA 18964
Nichols Anthony A Sr director
Donald R Caldwell director 5 RADNOR CORP CENTER STE 555, RADNOR PA 19087
Roger H Ballou director C/O CDI CORP, 1717 ARCH ST 35TH FL, PHILADELPHIA PA 19103
Todd S Benning director 14 NORTH MAIN STREET, PO BOX 197, SOUDERTON PA 18964
Richard M Eisenstaedt director
Gerald A Ronon director 4390 DAVISVILLE ROAD, HATBORO PA 19040
Peter A Sears director 1659 EAST BOOT ROAD, WEST CHESTER PA 19380

Fox Chase Bancorp (Fox Chase Bancorp) Headlines

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