Guaranty Bancorp (Guaranty Bancorp) Predictability Rank

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What is Guaranty Bancorp Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Guaranty Bancorp Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Guaranty Bancorp (Guaranty Bancorp) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Banks » Guaranty Bancorp (NAS:GBNK) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

Website

http://www.gbnk.com

Guaranty Bancorp is a bank holding company providing banking and other financial services throughout Colorado market to consumers and to small and medium-sized businesses, including the owners and employees of those businesses.

Executives

Suzanne R Brennan	director	PACWEST BANCORP, 9701 WILSHIRE BOULEVARD, SUITE 700, BEVERLY HILLS CA 90212
W Kirk Wycoff	director	PATRIOT FINANCIAL PARTNERS, LP, 2929 ARCH STREET, 27TH FLOOR, PHILADELPHIA PA 19104
Eggemeyer John M Iii	director	PO BOX 1329, RANCHO SANTA FE CA 92067
Christopher G Treece	officer: EVP, CFO & Secretary	1331 17TH STREET, SUITE 200, DENVER CO 80202
Paul W Taylor	director, officer: President & CEO	1331 SEVENTEENTH STREET,, SUITE 200, DENVER CO 80202
Michael B Hobbs	officer: President, Guaranty Bank	1331 17TH STREET, SUITE 200, DENVER CO 80202
Albert C Yates	director	C/O COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY, LAUREL HALL, ROOM 12, FORT COLLINS CO 80523
Ralph V Whitworth	10 percent owner	RELATIONAL INVESTORS LLC, 12400 HIGH BLUFF DRIVE, SUITE 600, SAN DIEGO CA 92130
Relational Investors Llc	10 percent owner	12400 HIGH BLUFF DRIVE, SUITE 600, SAN DIEGO CA 92130
William J Ruh	10 percent owner	PO BOX 1329, RANCHO SANTA FE CA 92067
James K Simons	officer: EVP & CCO	1331 SEVENTEENTH STREET, STE. 300, DENVER CO 80202
Kathleen Smythe	director	1331 17TH STREET, STE. 300, DENVER CO 80202
Patriot Financial Partners Gp, Lp	10 percent owner	FOUR RADNOR CORPORATE CENTER, SUITE 210, 100 MATSONFORD ROAD, RADNOR PA 19087
Patriot Financial Partners Gp, Llc	10 percent owner	2929 ARCH STREET, 27TH FLOOR, PHILADELPHIA PA 19104
Patriot Financial Partners Parallel, L.p.	10 percent owner	2929 ARCH STREET, 27TH FLOOR, PHILADELPHIA PA 19104