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GAMCO Global Gold Natural Resources &ome Trust (GAMCO Global Gold Natural Resources &ome Trust) Predictability Rank


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What is GAMCO Global Gold Natural Resources &ome Trust Predictability Rank?

1 (5)

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

GAMCO Global Gold Natural Resources &ome Trust Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

GAMCO Global Gold Natural Resources &ome Trust Predictability Rank Related Terms

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GAMCO Global Gold Natural Resources &ome Trust (GAMCO Global Gold Natural Resources &ome Trust) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Asset Management » GAMCO Global Gold Natural Resources & Income Trust (AMEX:GGN) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
CION BIT PEO LDP VINP BHK CEM BTO CCD NMCO BLK BX KKR OSTO:INVE A APO TSX:BN AMP BK OSTO:EQT XSWX:PGHN
Traded in Other Exchanges
GGN.PRB.PFD:USA
Address
One Corporate Center, Rye, NY, USA, 10580-1422
Website
https://www.gabelli.com
GAMCO Global Gold Natural Resources & Income Trust is a non-diversified closed-end management investment company. Its primary investment objective is to provide a high current income and capital appreciation as its secondary objective. To achieve its objective, the fund may invest 80% of its assets in equity securities of companies principally engaged in the gold and natural resources industries. It also intends to earn income through an option strategy of writing (selling) covered call options on equity securities in its portfolio.
Executives
Agnes Mullady officer: Treasurer ONE CORPORATE CENTER, RYE NY 10580
Calgary Avansino director C/O GAMCO INVESTORS, INC., ONE CORPORATE CENTER, RYE NY 10580
Elizabeth C Bogan director C/O DINSMORE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT CO., 65 MADISON AVENUE, MORRISTOWN NJ 07960
Peter D. Goldstein officer: Secretary 249 ROYAL PALM WAY, SUITE 503, PALM BEACH FL 33480
James P Conn director
Mario J Gabelli other: Control Person of Adviser 191 MASON STREET, GREENWICH CT 06830
Michael J Melarkey director ONE CORPORATE CENTER, RYE NY 10580
Salvatore J Zizza director 810 SEVENTH AVE, 27TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10019
Anthony S. Colavita director C/O GAMCO INVESTORS, INC., ONE CORPORATE CENTER, RYE NY 10580
John Chester Ball officer: Treasurer 800 CONNECTICUT AVENUE, NORWALK CT 06854
Salvatore M Salibello director ONE CORPORATE CENTER, RYE NY 10580
Anthonie C Vanekris director ONE CORPORATE CENTER, RYE NY 10580
Fahrenkopf Frank J Jr director ONE CORPORATE CENTER, RYE NY 10580
Bruce N Alpert officer: President C/O GAMCO INVESTORS, INC., ONE CORPORATE CENTER, RYE NY 10580
Urso Mario D director 65 EATON SQUARE, LONDON SW UK X0 041101225