Gulf Island Fabrication (Gulf Island Fabrication) Predictability Rank

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What is Gulf Island Fabrication Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Gulf Island Fabrication Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Gulf Island Fabrication (Gulf Island Fabrication) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Industrial Products » Gulf Island Fabrication Inc (NAS:GIFI) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

2170 Buckthorne Place, Suite 420, The Woodlands, TX, USA, 77380

Website

https://www.gulfisland.com

Gulf Island Fabrication Inc is a U.S.-based company that is a fabricator of complex steel structures and marine vessels. The company also provides installation, hook-up, commissioning, repair, and maintenance services with specialized crews. The company operates through segments namely Fabrication division fabricates structures such as offshore drilling and production platforms and other steel structures for customers in the oil and gas industries; the Shipyards division manufactures newly built and repairs various steel marine vessels in the United States; the Services division provides interconnect piping services on offshore platforms, welding, and inshore structures and also provides maintenance and industrial facilities.

Executives

Robert M Averick	director, 10 percent owner	KOKINO LLC, 201 TRESSER BOULEVARD, 3RD FLOOR, STAMFORD CT 06901
Jay Troger	director	2170 BUCKTHORNE PLACE, SUITE 420, THE WOODLANDS TX 77380
William E Chiles	director	C/O ENSCO INTERNTIONAL INC, 1445 ROSS AVE, DALLAS TX 75202-2792
Murray W. Burns	director	16225 PARK TEN PLACE, SUITE 280, HOUSTON TX 77084
Matthew R Oubre	other: SVP, Commercial	16225 PARK TEN PLACE, SUITE 300, HOUSTON TX 77084
Richard W. Heo	director, officer: President & CEO	2103 RESEARCH FOREST DRIVE, THE WOODLANDS TX 77380
C D Richard	director
Michael A Flick	director	2000 W SAM HOUSTON PARKWAY SOUTH, SUITE 1700, HOUSTON TX 77042
Michael J Keeffe	director	400 N. SAM HOUSTON PARKWAY E. SUITE 1200, HOUSTON TX 77060
Thomas M. Smouse	officer: VP, Chief Human Resources Offi	16225 PARK TEN PLACE, SUITE 300, HOUSTON TX 77084
James L. Morvant	other: SVP, Fabrication & Services	16225 PARK TEN PLACE, SUITE 300, HOUSTON TX 77084
Piton Capital Partners Llc	10 percent owner	C/O NORTH BAY ASSOCIATES, 14000 QUAIL SPRINGS PARKWAY, SUITE 2200, OKLAHOMA CITY OK 73134
Gregory J Cotter	director	583 THOMPSON RD, HOUMA LA 70363
Christian G Vaccari	other: Executive VP of Subsidiary	1100 POYDAS ST, STE 2000, NEW ORLEAN LA 70163
Donald John Mackay	other: Executive VP of Subsidiary	16225 PARK TEN PLACE, SUITE 300, HOUSTON TX 77084