General Mills (General Mills) Predictability Rank

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What is General Mills Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

General Mills Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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General Mills (General Mills) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Defensive » Consumer Packaged Goods » General Mills Inc (NYSE:GIS) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

GIS:Mexico GRM:Germany GRM:Germany GRM:Germany G1MI34:Brazil GIS:Austria

Address

Number One General Mills Boulevard, Minneapolis, MN, USA, 55426

Website

https://www.generalmills.com

General Mills is a global packaged food company that produces snacks, cereal, convenient meals, yogurt, dough, baking mixes and ingredients, pet food, and superpremium ice cream. Its largest brands are Nature Valley, Cheerios, Old El Paso, Yoplait, Pillsbury, Betty Crocker, Blue Buffalo, and Haagen-Dazs. In fiscal 2023, 81% of its revenue was derived from the United States, although the company also operates in Canada, Europe, Australia, Asia, and Latin America. While most of General Mills' products are sold through retail stores to consumers, the company also sells products to the foodservice channel and the commercial baking industry.

Executives

Werner Lanette Shaffer	officer: Chief Innovation Officer	ONE GENERAL MILLS BLVD., MINNEAPOLIS MN 55426
David Cordani	director	THE CIGNA GROUP, 900 COTTAGE GROVE ROAD, BLOOMFIELD CT 06002
Mark A Pallot	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	NUMBER ONE GENERAL MILLS BLVD, MINNEAPOLIS MN 55426
Jodi J Benson	officer: Chief Innovation Officer	GENERAL MILLS, INC., ONE GENERAL MILLS BLVD, MINNEAPOLIS MN 55426
Jacqueline Williams-roll	officer: Senior Vice President	GENERAL MILLS, INC., ONE GENERAL MILLS BLVD, MINNEAPOLIS MN 55426
Bethany C. Quam	officer: Group President	GENERAL MILLS, INC., ONE GENERAL MILLS BLVD., MINNEAPOLIS MN 55426
Jonathon Nudi	officer: Senior Vice President	GENERAL MILLS, INC., ONE GENERAL MILLS BLVD, MINNEAPOLIS MN 55426
Sean N Walker	officer: Group President	NUMBER ONE GENERAL MILLS BLVD, MINNEAPOLIS MN 55426
Shawn P Ogrady	officer: SVP, Pres, Consumer Food Sales	ONE GENERAL MILLS BLVD, MINNEAPOLIS MN 55426
Jeffrey L Harmening	officer: Executive Vice President	ONE GENERAL MILLS BLVD, MINNEAPOLIS MN 55426
Dana M Mcnabb	officer: Group President	NUMBER ONE GENERAL MILLS BLVD, MINNEAPOLIS MN 55426
C Kim Goodwin	director	C/O AKAMAI TECHNOLOGIES, INC., 8 CAMBRIDGE CENTER, CAMBRIDGE MA 02142
Karen Wilson Thissen	officer: General Counsel & Secretary	1098 AMERIPRISE FINANCIAL CENTER, MINNEAPOLIS MN 55474
John R Church	officer: SVP, Supply Chain	ONE GENERAL MILLS BLVD, MINNEAPOLIS MN 55426
Richard C Allendorf	officer: Senior Vice President	GENERAL MILLS, INC., ONE GENERAL MILLS BLVD., MINNEAPOLIS MN 55426