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Glaukos (Glaukos) Predictability Rank


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What is Glaukos Predictability Rank?

1 (5)

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Glaukos Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Glaukos Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Glaukos's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

Glaukos (Glaukos) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Medical Devices & Instruments » Glaukos Corp (NYSE:GKOS) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
NARI CNMD IART ITGR LIVN AXNX QDEL IRTC MASI INSP ABT SYK MDT BSX SZSE:300760 EW DXCM ZBH STE XAMS:PHIA
Traded in Other Exchanges
6GJ:Germany
Address
One Glaukos Way, Aliso Viejo, CA, USA, 92656
Website
https://www.glaukos.com
Glaukos Corp is an ophthalmic medical technology company focused on the development and commercialization of breakthrough products and procedures designed to transform the treatment of glaucoma. It offers iStent, a micro-bypass stent for insertion in conjunction with cataract surgery for the reduction of intraocular pressure in adult patients with mild-to-moderate open-angle glaucoma. Its product pipeline also consists of an iStent SA trabecular micro-bypass system, a two-stent product that is slightly wider than the iStent Inject and uses a different auto-injection inserter designed for use in a standalone procedure.
Executives
Alex R. Thurman officer: SVP & Chief Financial Officer C/O GLAUKOS CORPORATION, 229 AVENIDA FABRICANTE, SAN CLEMENTE CA 92672
Joseph E Gilliam officer: CFO, SVP Corporate Development C/O GLAUKOS CORPORATION, 229 AVENIDA FABRICANTE, SAN CLEMENTE CA 92677
Thomas William Burns director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chief Executive Officer C/O GLAUKOS CORPORATION,, 26051 MERIT CIRCLE, SUITE 103, LAGUNA HILLS CA 92653
Marc Stapley director 9885 TOWNE CENTRE DRIVE, SAN DIEGO CA 92121
Gilbert H Kliman director C/O INTERWEST PARTNERS, 467 FIRST STREET SUITE 201, LOS ALTOS CA 94022
Tomas Navratil officer: Chief Development Officer C/O GLAUKOS CORPORATION, 229 AVENIDA FABRICANTE, SAN CLEMENTE CA 92672
Leana Wen director C/O GLAUKOS CORPORATION, 229 AVENIDA FABRICANTE, SAN CLEMENTE CA 92672
Denice Torres director 3 RABBIT RUN DRIVE, NEW HOPE PA 18938
Chris M. Calcaterra officer: Chief Commercial Officer C/O GLAUKOS CORPORATION, 26051 MERIT CIRCLE, SUITE 103, LAGUNA HILLS CA 92653
Link William J Phd director, 10 percent owner ONE SANSOME STREET, SUITE 1650, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94104
Jonathan Silverstein director 601 LEXINGTON AVENUE, 54TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Orbimed Advisors Llc director 601 LEXINGTON AVENUE, 54TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Richard L Harrison officer: Treasurer, CFO & Secretary 26051 MERIT CIRCLE, SUITE 103, LAGUNA HILLS CA 92653
Samuel D Isaly director 601 LEXINGTON AVENUE, 54TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Orbimed Capital Gp Iii Llc director 601 LEXINGTON AVENUE, 54TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022