Glen Burnie Bancorp (Glen Burnie Bancorp) Predictability Rank

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What is Glen Burnie Bancorp Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Glen Burnie Bancorp Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Glen Burnie Bancorp (Glen Burnie Bancorp) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Banks » Glen Burnie Bancorp (NAS:GLBZ) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

101 Crain Highway, S.E., Glen Burnie, MD, USA, 21061

Website

https://www.thebankofglenburnie.com

Glen Burnie Bancorp is a bank holding company for The Bank of Glen Burnie. It offers retail and commercial banking services such as checking, savings, loans, mobile banking, online banking, wire transfer, ACH services, debit card, automated teller machines, and safe deposit boxes among others. The bank generates its revenue in the form of interest income. All of the revenues are earned within the United States.

Executives

Mary L Wilcox	director	711 MAYO RD, GLEN BURNIE MD 21061
Julie M Mussog	director	1105 MIAMI AVENUE, ANNAPOLIS MD 21403
Stanford Hess	director	43 RIVER OAKS CIRCLE, BALTIMORE MD 21208
Joan Rumenap	director	115 1ST AVENUE, SW, GLEN BURNIE MD 21061
Harrison Norman E Jr	director	1 BARNABY COURT, TIMONIUM MD 21093
John D. Long	director, officer: Executive Vice President	101 CRANE HIGHWAY, S.E., GLEN BURNIE MD 21061
Edward L Maddox	director	323 ARBOR OAKS CT., MILLERSVILLE MD 21108
John Melvin Wright	officer: CFO	1301 MERRITT BOULEVARD, DUNDALK MD 21222
Kuethe F William Jr	director, officer: President	101 CRAIN HIGHWAY SE, GLEN BURNIE MD 21061
John E Demyan	director	101 CRAIN HWY SE, GLEN BURNIE MD 21061
Andrew Cooch	director	101 CRAIN HIGHWAY SE, GLEN BURNIE MD 21061
Karen B Thowarth	director	201 THIRD AVE SW, GLEN BURNIE MD 21061
Edward B Connelly	officer: COO	207 SANFORD AVENUE, CATONSVILLE MD 21228
Scherer William N Sr	director	24 CRAIN HIGHWAY SW, GLEN BURNIE MD 21061
Joyce Ann Ohmer	officer: Senior Vice President	300 COUNCIL OAK DRIVE, SEVERN MD 21144