Genie Energy (Genie Energy) Predictability Rank

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What is Genie Energy Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Genie Energy Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Genie Energy (Genie Energy) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Utilities » Utilities - Regulated » Genie Energy Ltd (NYSE:GNE) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

VIA SUME HE MGEE NEE SO DUK LSE:NG. PCG AEP EXC D XEL ED PEG BOM:532555 WEC EIX BOM:532898 FE

Traded in Other Exchanges

6GE:Germany 6GE:Germany

Address

520 Broad Street, Newark, NJ, USA, 07102

Website

https://www.genie.com

Genie Energy, through its subsidiaries, operates primarily as a global retail energy provider. It operates two reportable business segments: Genie retail energy, or GRE, and Genie renewables. The Genie retail energy segment resells energy to residential and commercial consumers in the Eastern and Midwestern United States through its portfolio of various retail energy providers. The Genie renewables segment holds controlling interests in various companies engaged in the manufacturing of solar panels, solar installation design, and solar energy project management.

Executives

Alan B Rosenthal	director	C/O GENIE ENERGY LTD., 520 BROAD STREET, NEWARK NJ 07102
Joyce J Mason	director	IDT CORP, 520 BROAD STREET, NEWARK NJ 07102
Avi Goldin	officer: CFO and Treasurer	C/O GENIE ENERGY LTD., 520 BROAD STREET, NEWARK NJ 07102
James A Courter	director	IDT CORP, 520 BROAD STREET, NEWARK NJ 07102
Howard S Jonas	director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chairman of the Board
Michael C Jonas	officer: Executive Vice President	C/O GENIE ENERGY LTD., 550 BROAD STREET, NEWARK NJ 07102
Michael M Stein	officer: Executive Vice President	550 BROAD STREET, 17TH FLOOR, NEWARK NJ 07102
Irwin Katsof	director	C/O CTM MEDIA HOLDINGS, INC., 11 LARGO DRIVE SOUTH, STAMFORD CT 06907
Claude Pupkin	officer: CEO & President	IDT CORPORATION, 520 BROAD STREET, NEWARK NJ 07102
Ira A Greenstein	officer: President	IDT CORP, 520 BROAD STREET, NEWARK NJ 07102
Idt Corp	10 percent owner	520 BROAD STREET, NEWARK NJ 07102
William Wesley Perry	director
Allan Sass	director	C/O GENIE ENERGY LTD., 520 BROAD STREET, NEWARK NJ 07102
Geoffrey Rochwarger	officer: Vice Chairman	IDT CORP, 520 BROAD STREET, NEWARK NJ 07102