Alphabet(Google) (GOOGL) Predictability Rank

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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Alphabet(Google) Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Alphabet(Google) (GOOGL) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Communication Services » Interactive Media » Alphabet Inc(Google) (NAS:GOOGL) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Address

1600 Amphitheatre Parkway, Mountain View, CA, USA, 94043

Website

https://www.abc.xyz

Alphabet is a holding company. Internet media giant Google is a wholly owned subsidiary. Google generates 99% of Alphabet revenue, of which more than 85% is from online ads. Google's other revenue is from sales of apps and content on Google Play and YouTube, as well as cloud service fees and other licensing revenue. Sales of hardware such as Chromebooks, the Pixel smartphone, and smart home products, which include Nest and Google Home, also contribute to other revenue. Alphabet's moonshot investments are in its other bets segment, where it bets on technology to enhance health (Verily), provide faster internet access (Google Fiber), enable self-driving cars (Waymo), and more.

Executives

R. Martin Chavez	director	C/O GOLDMAN SACHS & CO. LLC, 200 WEST STREET, NEW YORK NY 10282
Prabhakar Raghavan	officer: Senior Vice President	C/O ALPHABET INC.,, 1600 AMPHITHEATRE PKWY, MOUNTAIN VIEW CA 94043
Philipp Schindler	officer: SVP, Chief Business Officer	C/O ALPHABET INC., 1600 AMPHITHEATRE PKWY, MOUNTAIN VIEW CA 94568
John Kent Walker	officer: SVP, Global Affairs and CLO	1600 AMPHITHEATRE PRKW, MOUNTAIN VIEW CA 94043
Frances Arnold	director	5200 ILLUMINA WAY, SAN DIEGO CA 92122
Robin L Washington	director	333 LAKESIDE DRIVE, FOSTER CITY CA 94404
Amie Thuener O'toole	officer: VP, Chief Accounting Officer	C/O ALPHABET INC., 1600 AMPHITHEATRE PKWY, MOUNTAIN VIEW CA 94043
Antonio Lee	10 percent owner, other: Investor/Large Shareholder	4009 216TH STREET, MATTESON IL 60443
Ferguson Roger W. Jr.	director	CORNING INCORPORATED, ONE RIVERFRONT PLAZA, CORNING NY 14831
James Grier Campbell	officer: VP, Alphabet Corp. Controller	1600 AMPHITHEATRE PKWY, MOUNTAIN VIEW CA 94043
John L Hennessy	director
Kavitark Ram Shriram	director	1600 AMPHITHEATRE PARKWAY, MOUNTAIN VIEW CA 94043
Alan R Mulally	director	P.O. BOX 995, MERCER ISLAND WA 98040
Ann Mather	director
Shirley M Tilghman	director	GOOGLE INC., 1600 AMPHITHEATRE PARKWAY, MOUNTAIN VIEW CA 94043