What is Graphic Packaging Holding Co Predictability Rank?
4.5 (5)
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Graphic Packaging Holding Co Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Graphic Packaging Holding Co (Graphic Packaging Holding Co) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
1500 Riveredge Parkway, Suite 100, Atlanta, GA, USA, 30328
Graphic Packaging Holding Co is a holding company that manufactures and sells a variety of paper-based consumer packaging products through its subsidiaries. The company's two primary functions include the sale of paperboard packaging and the operation of paperboard mills. The paperboard packaging business includes packaging for beverages, including beer and soft drinks as well as food, including cereal, frozen foods, and pet foods. The firm also sells paperboard packaging for household products, including dishwasher and laundry detergent and personal care products. Graphic Packaging operates papermills that sell laminated and coated packaging products to third parties. The majority of revenue comes from the Americas.
Executives
| Stephen R. Scherger |
officer: SVP, Consumer Packaging Div. |
3901 SULGRAVE ROAD, RICHMOND VA 23221 |
| Lynn A Wentworth |
director |
CINCINNATI BELL INC, P O BOX 2301, CINCINNATI OH 45201 |
| Michael James Farrell |
officer: EVP, Mills Division |
1500 RIVEREDGE PARKWAY, SUITE 100, ATLANTA GA 30328 |
| Jean Francois Roche |
officer: SVP and President, EMEA |
1500 RIVEREDGE PARKWAY, SUITE 100, AT GA 30328 |
| Elizabeth Spence |
officer: EVP, Human Resources |
1500 RIVEREDGE PARKWAY, N.W., SUITE 100, ATLANTA GA 30328 |
| Aziz Aghili |
director |
5706 KIRKRIDGE TRAIL, ROCHESTER HILLS MI 48306 |
| Margie Kay Bidlingmaier |
officer: EVP, President, Americas Busi |
1500 RIVEREDGE PARKWAY, SUITE 100, ATLANTA GA 30328 |
| Mary K Rhinehart |
director |
821 17TH STREET, DENVER CO 80202 |
| Joseph P Yost |
officer: SVP, Supply Chain |
814 LIVINGSTON COURT, MARIETTA GA 30067 |
| Larry M Venturelli |
director |
2000 M-63N, BENTON HARBOR MI 49022 |
| Charles D Lischer |
officer: SVP & CAO |
2500 WINDY RIDGE PARKWAY, SUITE 700, ATLANTA GA 30339 |
| Stacey J. Panayiotou |
officer: EVP, Human Resources |
9200 W. 108TH CIRCLE, WESTMINSTER CO 80021 |
| Robert Hagemann |
director |
3 GIRALDA FARMS, MADISON NJ 07940 |
| Laurie Brlas |
director |
C/O ALBEMARLE CORPORATION, 4250 CONGRESS ST STE 900, CHARLOTTE NC 28209 |
| Dean A Scarborough |
director |
150 N. ORANGE GROVE BLVD, PASADENA CA 91103 |
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