Green Plains (Green Plains) Predictability Rank

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What is Green Plains Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Green Plains Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Green Plains (Green Plains) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Basic Materials » Chemicals » Green Plains Inc (NAS:GPRE) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

G3V:Germany G3V:Germany

Address

1811 Aksarben Drive, Omaha, NE, USA, 68106

Website

https://www.gpreinc.com

Green Plains Inc manufactures and sells ethanol and ethanol byproducts in three segments based on function. The ethanol production segment, which generates the majority of revenue, includes the production of ethanol, grains, and corn oil. The agribusiness and energy services segment includes the grain procurement and commodity marketing business, which markets, sells, and distributes ethanol, distillers grains, and corn oil. The partnership segment provides fuel storage and transportation services.

Executives

Todd A Becker	officer: President and CEO	1811 AKSARBEN DRIVE, OMAHA NE 68106
James D Anderson	director	1811 AKSARBEN DRIVE, OMAHA NE 68106
Van Der Meulen Leslie	officer: EVP Product Mktg & Innovation	1811 AKSARBEN DRIVE, OMAHA NE 68106
Alain Treuer	director	9420 UNDERWOOD AVE., SUITE 100, OMAHA NE 68114
Michelle Mapes	officer: Exe VP, Gen Counsel & Corp Sec	1811 AKSARBEN DRIVE, OMAHA NE 68106
Brian Peterson	director	1739 CHARLES AVE., LAWTON IA 51030
Knudsen Ejnar A Iii	director	1811 AKSARBEN DRIVE, OMAHA NE 68106
Chris Osowski	officer: EVP Operations and Technology	1811 AKSARBEN DRIVE, OMAHA NE 68106
James E Stark	officer: Chief Financial Officer	1811 AKSARBEN DRIVE, OMAHA NE 68106
Herbert James F Ii	officer: Chief Human Resources Officer	1811 AKSARBEN DRIVE, OMAHA NE 68106
Grant D Kadavy	officer: EVP Commercial Operations	1811 AKSARBEN DRIVE, OMAHA NE 68106
Paul E Kolomaya	officer: EVP - Commodity Finance	1811 AKSARBEN DRIVE, OMAHA NE 68106
Farha Aslam	director	1770 N PROMOTORY CIRCLE, GREELEY CO 80634
Hagstrom William J. Iii	officer: EVP Strategy and Development	1811 AKSARBEN DR, OMAHA NE 68106
Martin Salinas	director	1001 NOBLE ENERGY WAY, HOUSTON TX 77070