W R Grace (W R Grace) Predictability Rank

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What is W R Grace Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

W R Grace Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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W R Grace (W R Grace) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Basic Materials » Chemicals » W R Grace & Co (NYSE:GRA) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

7500 Grace Drive, Columbia, MD, USA, 21044-4098

Website

https://www.grace.com

W R Grace & Co, through its subsidiaries, makes and sells chemicals and silica-based materials used in refining, pharma, chemical manufacturing, coating, and various chemical process applications. The company has two reportable business segments: Grace catalysts technologies and Grace material technologies. Most of the company's revenue is generated by the Grace catalysts technologies segment from the sale of oil refining catalysts and catalysts used in petrochemical, refining, and other chemical manufacturing applications, and more than half of the revenue is earned in North America and Europe, Middle East, and Africa.

Executives

Mark E Tomkins	director	VULCAN MATERIALS CO, 1200 URBAN CENTER DR, BIRMINGHAM AL 35242
Diane H. Gulyas	director	C/O EXPEDITORS, 1015 THIRD AVENUE, SEATTLE WA 98104
Henry R Slack	director	10070 DANIELS INTERSTATE COURT SUITE 100, FT MYERS FL 33935
Christopher J Steffen	director	10188 TELESIS CT. SUITE 100 SAN DIEGO CA 92121
Julie Fasone Holder	director	200 SOUTH WILCOX DRIVE, KINGSPORT TN 37662-0431
Cummings Robert F Jr	director	C/O MOORE CORP, ONE CANTARBURG GREET, STAMFORD CT 006901
Shlomo Yanai	director	ONE MEADOWLANDS PLAZA, EAST RUTHERFORD NJ 07073
Elizabeth C Brown	officer: Sr. VP and CHRO	C/O W. R. GRACE & CO., 7500 GRACE DRIVE, COLUMBIA MD 21044
William C. Dockman	officer: Senior VP and CFO	C/O W. R. GRACE & CO. 7500 GRACE DRIVE COLUMBIA MD 21044
La Force Andrew Hudson Iii	director, officer: President and CEO	C/O W. R. GRACE & CO., 7500 GRACE DRIVE, COLUMBIA MD 21044
Keith N Cole	officer: Sr. VP, Govt. Rel. and EHS	C/O W. R. GRACE & CO., 7500 GRACE DRIVE, COLUMBIA MD 21044
Mark A Shelnitz	officer: Sr. VP, GC and Secretary	C/O W. R. GRACE & CO., 7500 GRACE DRIVE, COLUMBIA MD 21044
Alfred E Festa	director
Standard Latitude Master Fund Ltd.	10 percent owner	9 WEST 57TH STREET, 47TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10019
Si Gp Iii Llc	10 percent owner	9 WEST 57TH STREET, 47TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10019