Eagle Capital Growth Fund (Eagle Capital Growth Fund) Predictability Rank

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What is Eagle Capital Growth Fund Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Eagle Capital Growth Fund Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Eagle Capital Growth Fund Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Eagle Capital Growth Fund (Eagle Capital Growth Fund) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Asset Management » Eagle Capital Growth Fund Inc (AMEX:GRF) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

225 East Mason Street, Suite 802, Milwaukee, WI, USA, 53202

Website

https://www.eaglecapitalgrowthfund.com

Eagle Capital Growth Fund Inc is a diversified closed-end investment company. The fund's objective is long-term growth utilizing the concept of total return for selecting investments.

Executives

David C Sims	officer: chief compliance officer	225 E. MASON STREET, SUITE 802, MILWAUKEE WI 53202
Luke E Sims	director	225 E. MASON STREET, SUITE 802, MILWAUKEE WI 53202
Donald G Tyler	director	205 E. WISCONSIN AVENUE, SUITE 120, MILWAUKEE WI 53202
Anne M Nichols	director	225 E. MASON STREET, SUITE 802, MILWAUKEE WI 53202
Jason W. Allen	director	225 E. MASON STREET, SUITE 802, MILWAUKEE WI 53202
Peggy L Schmeltz	director	711 W THIRTEEN MILE RD, MADISON HEIGHTS MI 48071
Robert M Bilkie	director	711 W. 13 MILE RD., MADISON HEIGHTS MI 48071
Neal F. Zalenko	director	260 E. BROWN ST., SUITE 200, BIRMINGHAM MI 48009
Phillip J Hanrahan	director	FOLEY & LARDNER US BANK CENTER, 777 EAST WISCONSIN AVE, MILWAUKEE WI 53202-5367
Mutual Investment Club Of Detroit	other: Investment Club	711 WEST THIRTEEN MILE ROAD, MADISON HEIGHTS MI 48071
James M Lane	director	711 W THIRTEEN MILE RD, MADISON HEIGHTS MI 48071
National Association Of Investment Clubs Trust	other: Investment Advisor Affiliate	711 WEST THIRTEEN MILE ROAD, MADISON HEIGHTS MI 48071
Donald E Danko	other: Trustee, NAIC
Leroy F Mumford	other: Trustee, NAIC	2950 CANTERBURY ROAD, WESTLAKE OH 44145
Lorrie Gustin	other: Trustee, NAIC	423 W WILLOW COURT, MILWAUKEE WI 53217

Eagle Capital Growth Fund (Eagle Capital Growth Fund) Headlines

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