Gray Television (Gray Television) Predictability Rank

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What is Gray Television Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Gray Television Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Gray Television (Gray Television) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Communication Services » Media - Diversified » Gray Television Inc (NYSE:GTN) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

GTN.A:USA GCZB:Germany

Address

4370 Peachtree Road NE, Atlanta, GA, USA, 30319

Website

https://www.gray.tv

Gray Television Inc is a television broadcast company. The company is engaged in owning and operating television stations. It also owns video program production, marketing, and digital business. The company has two segments namely, Broadcasting and Production companies. It generates revenue maximum revenue from the Broadcasting segment.

Executives

Richard Lee Boger	director
T L Elder	director	5087 PINE BARK CIRCLE, DUNWOODY GA 30338
Robin Robinson Howell	director	3656 TUXEDO ROAD NW, ATLANTA GA 30305
Howell Hilton H Jr	director, officer: Chairman, President & CEO	4370 PEACHTREE ROAD, N.E., ATLANTA GA 30319
Sandra Breland Mcnamara	officer: Executive Vice President, COO	4370 PEACHTREE ROAD, NE, ATLANTA GA 30319
Harriett J Robinson	director
Paul Mctear	director	1451 WEST CYPRESS CREEK ROAD, SUITE 300, FORT LAUDERDALE FL 33309
D Patrick Laplatney	director	1451 WEST CYPRUS CREEK ROAD, SUITE 300, FORT LAUDERDALE FL 33309
Cowart Jackson S Iv	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	126 N WASHINGTON STREET, ALBANY GA 31701
James C Ryan	officer: EVP & Chief Financial Officer
Lorri Mcclain	director	4370 PEACHTREE ROAD, NE, ATLANTA GA 30319
Robert Lawrence Smith	officer: SVP & COO	4370 PEACHTREE ROAD NE, SUITE 400, ATLANTA GA 30319
Kevin Paul Latek	officer: EVP Chief L & D Officer	4370 PEACHTREE ROAD, NE, ATLANTA GA 30319
Spainhour Sterling A Jr.	director	4370 PEACHTREE ROAD, NE, ATLANTA GA 30319
Bankers Fidelity Life Insurance Co	10 percent owner	4370 PEACHTREE ROAD NE, ATLANTA GA 30319