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Gulf Coast Ultra Deep Royalty Trust (Gulf Coast Ultra Deep Royalty Trust) Predictability Rank


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What is Gulf Coast Ultra Deep Royalty Trust Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Gulf Coast Ultra Deep Royalty Trust Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Gulf Coast Ultra Deep Royalty Trust Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Gulf Coast Ultra Deep Royalty Trust's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

Gulf Coast Ultra Deep Royalty Trust (Gulf Coast Ultra Deep Royalty Trust) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Energy » Oil & Gas » Gulf Coast Ultra Deep Royalty Trust (OTCPK:GULTU) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
PTCO ROYL ALTX LRDC FECOF GSPE WTXR VBHI AMNI MMEX COP HKSE:00883 EOG TSX:CNQ PXD OXY MIC:NVTK HES ASX:WDS DVN
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
601 Travis Street, 16th Floor, Houston, TX, USA, 77002
Website
https://gultu.q4web.com
Gulf Coast Ultra Deep Royalty Trust is a statutory trust. It holds overriding royalty interests in future production from each of McMoRan Oil & Gas LLC's Inboard Lower Tertiary/Cretaceous exploration prospects located in South Louisiana. The Royalty Trust holds short-term investments acquired with funds that it holds for the payment of its administrative and other expenses. The company's subject interests consist of approximately Inboard Lower Tertiary/Cretaceous. Its offshore subject interests consist of exploration prospects, including Barataria; Barbosa; Blackbeard East; Blackbeard West; Bonnet; Calico Jack; Captain Blood; Davy Jones; Davy Jones West; Drake; England; Hook and Hurricane, Lafitte, Morgan. The onshore subject interests consist of Highlander, Lineham Creek, and Tortuga.
Executives
Magnolia Oil & Gas Corp 10 percent owner NINE GREENWAY PLAZA, SUITE 1300, HOUSTON TX 77046
Montex Highlander, Llc 10 percent owner 420 THROCKMORTON STREET, SUITE 550, FORT WORTH TX 76102
Neil S Subin 10 percent owner 2336 S.E. OCEAN BOULEVARD, #400, STUART FL 34996
Freeport Mcmoran Copper & Gold Inc 10 percent owner 333 NORTH CENTRAL AVENUE, PHOENIX AZ 85004
Highlander Oil & Gas Assets Llc 10 percent owner NINE GREENWAY PLAZA, SUITE 1400, HOUSTON TX 77046
Miller Lloyd I Iii 10 percent owner
Mount Kellett Capital Management Lp 10 percent owner 1345 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK NY 10105
Fig Llc 10 percent owner 1345 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, 46 FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10105
Fortress Investment Group Llc 10 percent owner 1345 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, 46TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10105
Fortress Operating Entity I Lp 10 percent owner 1345 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK NY 10105
Fig Corp. 10 percent owner 1345 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK NY 10105
Fortress Mk Advisors Llc 10 percent owner 1345 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK NY 10105
Leon G Cooperman 10 percent owner 7118 MELROSE CASTLE LANE, BOCA RATON FL 33496

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