Highwoods Properties (Highwoods Properties) Predictability Rank

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What is Highwoods Properties Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Highwoods Properties Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Highwoods Properties (Highwoods Properties) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Real Estate » REITs » Highwoods Properties Inc (NYSE:HIW) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

150 Fayetteville Street, Suite 1400, Raleigh, NC, USA, 27601

Website

https://www.highwoods.com

Highwoods Properties Inc is a real estate investment trust engaged in the acquisition, ownership, management, and leasing of properties in urban areas throughout the Southern United States. In terms of total square footage, the vast majority of the company's real estate portfolio comprises office buildings in terms. Highwoods Properties derives nearly all of its income in the form of rental revenue from the tenants of its buildings. The majority of this revenue comes from its holdings in the urban markets of Atlanta, Raleigh, Nashville, and Tampa. These cities also account for the majority of the square footage under the company's ownership. Highwoods Properties' largest customers include the U.S. Government, financial services firms, industrial supply retailers, and healthcare companies.

Executives

Brian M Leary	officer: EVP & COO	3100 SMOKETREE COURT, SUITE 600, RALEIGH NC 27604
Theodore J Klinck	officer: VP/Chief Investment Officer	3100 SMOKETREE COURT, SUITE 600, RALEIGH NC 27604
Brendan C Maiorana	officer: EVP of Finance & IR	3100 SMOKETREE COURT, SUITE 600, RALEIGH NC 27604
Jeffrey Douglas Miller	officer: General Counsel & Sec.	3100 SMOKETREE COURT, SUITE 600, RALEIGH NC 27604
David L Gadis	director	3100 SMOKETREE COURT, SUITE 600, RALEIGH NC 27604
Mark F Mulhern	director	410 S. WILMINGTON STREET, RALEIGH NC 27601
David John Hartzell	director	3100 SMOKETREE COURT, SUITE 600, RALEIGH NC 27604
Thomas P Anderson	director	3751 GRISSOM PARKWAY, SUITE 100, MYRTLE BEACH SC 29577
Carlos E Evans	director	3100 SMOKETREE COURT, SUITE 600, RALEIGH NC 27616
Anne H Lloyd	director
Sherry A Kellett	director
Edward J Fritsch	director, officer: EVP & COO
Kevin E Penn	officer: VP/Chief Strategy & Admin	3100 SMOKETREE COURT, SUITE 600, RALEIGH NC 27604
Michael E Harris	officer: Sr. Vice President
Terry L Stevens	officer: VP, CFO & Treasurer	3100 SMOKETREE COURT, SUITE 600, RALEIGH NC 27604