What is HMS Holdings Predictability Rank?
Not Rated
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
HMS Holdings Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
HMS Holdings (HMS Holdings) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
5615 High Point Drive, Irving, TX, USA, 75038
HMS Holdings Corp is a United States-based holding company that conducts businesses through its operating subsidiaries. The company offers services that help customers contain healthcare insurance benefit costs. Its primary offerings comprise coordination of benefits, payment integrity, and eligibility verification. The coordination of benefits service ensures the right party pays a health claim. The payment integrity service ensures the billing and/or payment is accurate and appropriate. The eligibility verification service ensures individuals meet qualifying criteria for healthcare programs. The company's customers include Medicaid agencies, government health agencies, health plans, government and private employers, and others. The company operates only within the United States.
Executives
| Richard H Stowe |
director |
CAPITAL COUNSEL LLC 360 PARK AVENUE 11TH FLOOR NEW YORK NY 10022 |
| Craig R Callen |
director |
7902 WESTPARK DR, C/O SUNRISE ASSISTED LIVING, MCLEAN VA 22102 |
| Tellez Cora M |
director |
TISCH FAMILY INTERESTS, 667 MADISON AVE 7TH FL, NEW YORK NY 10021-8087 |
| Bart M Schwartz |
director |
401 PARK AVENUE SOUTH NEW YORK NY 10016 |
| William C Lucia |
director, officer: Chairman, President and CEO |
HEALTH MANAGEMENT SYSTEMS 401 PARK AVENUE S NEW YORK NY 10021 |
| Katherine Baicker |
director |
LILLY CORPORATE CENTER, INDIANAPOLIS IN 46285 |
| Robert Becker |
director |
C/O HMS HOLDINGS CORP. 5615 HIGH POINT DR. IRVING TX 75038 |
| Miller William F Iii |
director |
3618 HARVARD, DALLAS TX 75205 |
| Ellen A Rudnick |
director |
5807 SOUTH WOODLAWN AVENUE, MP POLSKY CENTER FOR ENTREPRENEURSHIP, CHICAGO IL 60637 |
| Jeffrey A Rideout |
director |
2142 DEER OAK WAY, DANVILLE CA 94506 |
| Greg D Aunan |
officer: SVP, Chief Accounting Officer |
HMS HOLDINGS CORP., 5615 HIGH POINT DRIVE, IRVING TX 75038 |
| Jacob Sims |
officer: SVP, Chief Technology Officer |
C/O HMS HOLDINGS CORP. 5615 HIGH POINT DR. IRVING TX 75038 |
| David A Alexander |
officer: Chief HR & Compliance Officer |
C/O HMS HOLDINGS CORP. 5615 HIGH POINT DRIVE IRVING TX 75038 |
| Jeffrey Scott Sherman |
officer: EVP, CFO, and Treasurer |
103 POWELL COURT, SUITE 200, BRENTWOOD TN 37027 |
| Teresa South |
officer: Chief Administrative Officer |
401 PARK AVENUE SOUTH NEW YORK NY 10016 |
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