At Home Group (At Home Group) Predictability Rank

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What is At Home Group Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

At Home Group Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

At Home Group Predictability Rank Related Terms

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At Home Group (At Home Group) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Retail - Cyclical » At Home Group Inc (NYSE:HOME) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

1600 East Plano Parkway, Plano, TX, USA, 75074

Website

https://www.athome.com

At Home Group Inc operates home decor superstores in the United States. The company's stores offer approximately 50,000 items, such as accent furniture, mirrors, patio cushions, rugs and wall arts, artificial flowers and trees, bedding and bath products, candles, garden and outdoor decor, holiday accessories, home organization, pillows, pottery, vases, and window treatments.

Executives

Sumit Anand	officer: Chief Information Officer	AT HOME GROUP INC. 1600 EAST PLANO PARKWAY PLANO TX 75074
Laura L. Bracken	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	AT HOME GROUP INC., 1600 EAST PLANO PARKWAY, PLANO TX 75074
Chad C Stauffer	officer: Chief Merchandising Officer	AT HOME GROUP INC. 1600 EAST PLANO PARKWAY PLANO TX 75074
Jeffrey R Knudson	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O AMN HEALTHCARE SERVICES INC., 8840 CYPRESS WATERS BOULEVARD, SUITE 300, DALLAS TX 75019
Norman E Mcleod	officer: Chief Development Officer	AT HOME GROUP INC. 1600 EAST PLANO PARKWAY PLANO TX 75074
Ashley F Sheetz	officer: Chief Marketing Officer	AT HOME GROUP INC. 1600 EAST PLANO PARKWAY PLANO TX 75074
Peter Sg Corsa	officer: President and COO	AT HOME GROUP INC. 1600 EAST PLANO PARKWAY PLANO TX 75074
Mary Jane Broussard	officer: GC and Corporate Secretary	AT HOME GROUP INC. 1600 EAST PLANO PARKWAY PLANO TX 75074
Clifford Sosin	10 percent owner	8 WRIGHT STREET, 1ST FL, WESTPORT CT 06880
Aea Investors Lp	10 percent owner	666 FIFTH AVENUE, 36TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10103
Aea Management (cayman) Ltd	10 percent owner	P. O. BOX 309, UGLAND HOUSE, GRAND CAYMAN E9 KY1-1104
Bird Lewis L Iii	director, officer: Chairman, CEO and President	AT HOME GROUP INC., 1600 EAST PLANO PARKWAY, PLANO TX 75074
Catherine Aslin	officer: Chief Human Resources Officer	AT HOME GROUP INC., 1600 EAST PLANO PARKWAY, PLANO TX 75074
Joanne C. Crevoiserat	director	6301 FITCH PATH, NEW ALBANY OH 43054
Philip L Francis	director	AT HOME GROUP INC., 1600 EAST PLANO PARKWAY, PLANO TX 75074