Helmerich & Payne (Helmerich & Payne) Predictability Rank

View and export this data going back to 1963. Start your Free Trial

What is Helmerich & Payne Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Helmerich & Payne Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Helmerich & Payne Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Helmerich & Payne's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

Helmerich & Payne (Helmerich & Payne) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Energy » Oil & Gas » Helmerich & Payne Inc (NYSE:HP) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

HPC:Germany

Address

1437 South Boulder Avenue, Suite 1400, Tulsa, OK, USA, 74119

Website

https://www.helmerichpayne.com

Helmerich & Payne has the largest fleet of U.S. land drilling rigs. The company's FlexRig line is the leading choice to drill horizontal wells for production of U.S. tight oil and gas. H&P is present in nearly every major U.S. shale play and also has a small but growing presence internationally.

Executives

Adams Raymond John Iii	officer: SVP Sales, Marketing & Digital	1437 S. BOULDER AVE., SUITE 1400, TULSA OK 74119
Hans Helmerich	director	C/O CIIRMAREX ENERGY CO, 707 17TH ST. #3300, DENVER CO 80202-3404
Elizabeth R Killinger	director	NRG ENERGY, INC., 211 CARNEGIE CENTER, PRINCETON NJ 08540
John W Lindsay	director, officer: President and CEO	1437 S. BOULDER AVE., SUITE 1400, TULSA OK 74119
John R. Bell	officer: SVP, Int'l & Offshore Ops, sub	1437 S. BOULDER AVE., SUITE 1400, TULSA OK 74119
Mark W. Smith	officer: Senior VP and CFO	15835 PARK TEN PLACE DRIVE, HOUSTON TX 77084
Cara M. Hair	officer: SVP, Corp. Services & CLO	1437 S. BOULDER AVE., SUITE 1400, TULSA OK 74119
Sara Marie Momper	officer: VP, CAO	1437 S. BOULDER AVE., SUITE 1400, TULSA OK 74119
Michael Lennox	officer: SVP, US Land Ops, drilling sub	1437 S. BOULDER AVE., SUITE 140, TULSA OK 74119
Todd Willard Benson	officer: President of H&P Technologies	1437 S. BOULDER AVENUE, SUITE 1400, TULSA OK 74119
Belgacem Chariag	director	TECHNO PARK, SHEIKH ZAYED ROAD, DUBAI C0 00000
Mary M Vandeweghe	director	1601 W. DIEHL ROAD, NAPERVILLE IL 60563
Kevin G. Cramton	director	502 SAINT DAVIDS AVENUE, WAYNE PA 19087
Delaney Murchison Bellinger	director	524 E. 24TH STREET, HOUSTON TX 77008
Jose Ramon Mas	director	800 DOUGLAS ROAD, 12TH FLOOR, CORAL GABLES FL 33134