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Heartland Payment Systems (Heartland Payment Systems) Predictability Rank


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What is Heartland Payment Systems Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.


Heartland Payment Systems Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Heartland Payment Systems Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Heartland Payment Systems's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


Heartland Payment Systems (Heartland Payment Systems) Business Description

Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
Heartland Payment Systems Inc was incorporated in the state of Delaware on June 2000. The Company provides Card Payment Processing services to merchants in the United States which involves providing end-to-end electronic payment processing services to merchants. For this the Company undertakes merchant set-up and training, transaction authorization and electronic draft capture, clearing and settlement, merchant accounting, merchant assistance and support, and risk management. The Company sells and rents point-of-sale devices. The Company's customers fall into two categories: small and mid-sized merchants, or SME merchants and Network Services merchants, which are predominately petroleum industry merchants of all sizes. Further, the Company provides additional services such as Heartland School Solutions, Heartland Ovation Payroll, Campus Solutions, Micropayments, and Heartland Marketing Solutions. As of December 31, 2013, the Company provided card payment processing services to 166,697 active SME merchants located across the United States. In addition to settling card transactions, Network Services processes a wide range of payment transactions for its predominantly petroleum customer base, including providing 2.3 billion transaction authorizations through its front-end card processing systems in 2013. The Card Payment Processing revenue from SME merchants and Network Services merchants is recurring in nature. The Company enters into three year service contracts with its SME merchants and three to five year agreements with Network Services merchants. The Company's merchant base include restaurants, brick and mortar retailers, hotel and lodgings, automotive sales and repair shops, convenience and liquor stores, professional service providers and gas stations. As of December 31, 2013 the Company served 42,069 independent restaurants and had partner agreements with approximatley 250 trade associations. The Company has developed number of payment processing systems to increase the operating efficiencies such as HPS Exchange, VAPS and NWS and Passport. The Company undertakes procedures such as Merchant Monitoring, Investigation and Loss Prevention, Underwriting and Collateral to minimize the transaction fraud. The Company's marketing efforts are focused on industries in which its direct sales model is effective on merchants who are typically on location, interact with customers, value a local sales presence, and consult with trade associations and other civic groups to make purchasing decisions.
Executives
Maureen Breakiron-evans director C/O COGNIZANT TECHNOLOGY SOLUTIONS CORP., 300 FRANK W. BURR BLVD., STE. 36, 6 FL., TEANECK NJ 07666
Robert H Niehaus director 4747 GAILLARDIA PARKWAY, OKLAHOMA CITY OK 73142
Baldwin Robert H B Jr officer: Vice Chairman C/O HEARTLAND PAYMENT SYSTEMS, INC., 90 NASSAU STREET, PRINCETON NJ 08542
Mitchell L Hollin director TWO GREENVILLE CROSSING, 4005 KENNETH PIKE, SUITE 220, GREENVILLE DE 19807
David L Gilbert officer: President - Hospitality Group 305 HARTMANN DR, LEBANON TN 37087
Charles Kallenbach officer: Chief Legal Officer, GC & Sec. 1100 CASSATT ROAD, C/O SUNCOM WIRELESS, BERWYN PA 19312
Greenhill Capital Partners, Llc other: Shareholder w/ Board Represent 300 PARK AVENUE, 23RD FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Greenhill & Co Inc other: Shareholder w/Bd. Rep 1271 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK NY 10020
Robert F Greenhill other: Shareholder w/Bd. Rep
Scott L Bok other: Shareholder w/Bd. Rep
Gcp 2000, Llc other: Shareholder w/Bd. Rep 300 PARK AVENUE, 23RD FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Gcp Managing Partner, L.p. other: Shareholder w/ Board Represent 300 PARK AVENUE, 23RD FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
L.p. Gcp, other: Shareholder w/Bd. Rep 300 PARK AVENUE, 23RD FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022

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