Heidrick & Struggles International (Heidrick & Struggles International) Predictability Rank

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What is Heidrick & Struggles International Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Heidrick & Struggles International Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Heidrick & Struggles International (Heidrick & Struggles International) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Business Services » Heidrick & Struggles International Inc (NAS:HSII) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

HSI:Germany

Address

233 South Wacker Drive, Suite 4900, Chicago, IL, USA, 60606-6303

Website

https://www.heidrick.com

Heidrick & Struggles International Inc is a leadership advisory firm providing executive search and consulting services to businesses and business leaders world wide. The company's operating segment includes the executive search business which operates in the Americas; Europe; Asia Pacific and On-Demand Talent and Heidrick Consulting. It generates maximum revenue from the Americas.

Executives

Mark R Harris	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O HERCULES TECHNOLOGY GROWTH CAPITAL, 400 HAMILTON AVENUE, SUITE 310, PALO ALTO CA 94301
John L Berisford	director	C/O THE PEPSI BOTTLING GROUP, INC., ONE PEPSI WAY, SOMERS NY 10589
Michael M Cullen	officer: Chief Operating Officer	233 S. WACKER DRIVE, SUITE 4900, CHICAGO IL 60606
Tracey Heaton	officer: Chief Legal Officer & Corp Sec	C/O HEIDRICK & STRUGGLES INT'L, INC., 233 S. WACKER DR. SUITE 4900, CHICAGO IL 60606
Bear Mary E.g.	director	C/O IMPERVA, INC., 3400 BRIDGE PARKWAY, STE. 200, REDWOOD SHORES CA 94065
Sarah Payne	officer: Chief Human Resources Officer	233 S. WACKER DRIVE, SUITE 4900, CHICAGO IL 60606
Krishnan Rajagopalan	officer: President and CEO	2001 PENNSYLVANIA AVENUE, SUITE 800, WASHINGTON DC 20006
Elizabeth L Axelrod	director	C/O EBAY INC., 2065 HAMILTON AVENUE, SAN JOSE CA 95125
Willem Mesdag	director	C/O RED MOUNTAIN CAPITAL MANAGEMENT INC., 10100 SANTA MONICA BOULEVARD, SUITE 925, LOS ANGELES CA 90067
Stacey Rauch	director	C/O ASCENA RETAIL GROUP, INC., 933 MACARTHUR BOULEVARD, MAHWAH NJ 07430
Adam Warby	director	2211 ELLIOTT AVE. SUITE 200, SEATTLE WA 98121
Lyle Logan	director	ONE TOWER LANE, OAKBROOK TERRACE IL 60181
Clare M. Chapman	director	233 S. WACKER DRIVE, SUITE 4900, CHICAGO IL 60606
Laszlo Bock	director	233 S. WACKER DRIVE, SUITE 4900, CHICAGO IL 60606
Kamau Coar	officer: General Counsel and Secretary	233 S. WACKER DRIVE, SUITE 4900, CHICAGO IL 60606