Hudson Global (Hudson Global) Predictability Rank

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What is Hudson Global Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Hudson Global Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Hudson Global (Hudson Global) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Business Services » Hudson Global Inc (NAS:HSON) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

53 Forest Avenue, Suite 102, Old Greenwich, CT, USA, 06870

Website

https://www.hudsonrpo.com

Hudson Global Inc provides specialized recruitment and related talent solutions. Its core services include Permanent recruitment, Contracting, Recruitment process outsourcing (RPO) and Talent management solutions. Its Permanent recruitment services leverage the company's consultants. In contracting services, it offers project management, interim management, and professional contract staffing services. RPO services deliver permanent and contracting outsourced recruitment solutions to various companies whereas, Talent management solutions feature services like talent assessment, interview training, executive coaching, employee development and outplacement.

Executives

Robert G. Pearse	director	100 CANAL POINTE BLVD., SUITE 108, PRINCETON NJ 08540
Jeffrey E. Eberwein	director	53 FOREST AVENUE, SUITE 101, OLD GREENWICH CT 06870
Matthew K Diamond	officer: VP of Finance	53 FOREST AVENUE, OLD GREENWICH CT 06870
Hudson Global, Inc.	officer: CFO and CAO	53 FOREST AVENUE, OLD GREENWICH CT 06870
Patrick M. Lyons	officer: CFO and CAO	HUDSON GLOBAL, INC., 1325 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, 12TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10019
Nelson Connia M	director	C/O HUDSON GLOBAL, INC., 53 FOREST AVENUE, OLD GREENWICH CT 06870
Mimi K Drake	director	C/O HUDSON GLOBAL, INC., 53 FOREST AVENUE, OLD GREENWICH CT 06870
Alan Lee Bazaar	director	9 BEDFORD ROAD, KATONAH NY 10536
Coleman Richard Kenneth Jr.	director	53 FOREST AVE, SUITE 101, OLD GREENWICH CT 06870
Ian V. Nash	director	HUDSON GLOBAL, INC., 1325 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, 12TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10019
Sagard Capital Partners, L.p.	10 percent owner	280 PARK AVENUE, 3RD FLOOR WEST, NEW YORK NY 10017
David F. Kirby	officer: VP, Finance and Treasury	HUDSON GLOBAL, INC., 1325 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, 12TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10019
Arthur Curcuru	officer: Senior VP, Finance	HUDSON GLOBAL, INC., 560 LEXINGTON AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10022
Vi Capital Fund, Lp	other: Member of 10% owner group	PO BOX 402, NEWMAN LAKE WA 99025
David William Pointer	other: Member of 10% owner group	PO BOX 402, NEWMAN LAKE WA 99025