HomeTrust Bancshares (HomeTrust Bancshares) Predictability Rank

View and export this data going back to 2012. Start your Free Trial

What is HomeTrust Bancshares Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

HomeTrust Bancshares Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

HomeTrust Bancshares Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of HomeTrust Bancshares's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

HomeTrust Bancshares (HomeTrust Bancshares) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Banks » HomeTrust Bancshares Inc (NAS:HTBI) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

10 Woodfin Street, Asheville, NC, USA, 28801

Website

https://www.htb.com

HomeTrust Bancshares Inc operates as a bank holding company, which offers deposit accounts for individuals, businesses, and nonprofit organizations for HomeTrust Bank. It involves attracting deposits, including savings money market, demand accounts, and certificates of deposit from the general public. The company's loan portfolio comprises retail consumer loans, such as one-to-four-family residential property lending, home equity lines of credit, construction and land/lots, indirect auto finance, and consumer lending; and commercial loans, including commercial real estate lending, construction, and development lending, and commercial and industrial loans.

Executives

Richard Tyrone Williams	other: Advisory Director	HOMETRUST BANCSHARES, INC., 10 WOODFIN STREET, ASHEVILLE NC 28801
Jesse Cureton	other: Advisory Director	C/O HOMETRUST BANCSHARES, INC., 10 WOODFIN STREET, ASHEVILLE NC 28801
Dwight L. Jacobs	other: Advisory Director	550 S. TRYON STREET - DEC45A, CHARLOTTE NC 28117
Bonnie V Hancock	other: Advisory Director	P O BOX 12818, HOUSTON TX 77075
Lora Jex	officer: EVP and Chief Risk Officer	C/O HOMETRUST BANCSHARES, INC., 10 WOODFIN STREET, ASHEVILLE NC 28801
Narasimhulu Neelagaru	director	C/O HOMETRUST BANCSHARES, INC., 10 WOODFIN STREET, ASHEVILLE NC 28801
Robert E. James	other: Advisory Director	HOMETRUST BANCSHARES, INC., 10 WOODFIN STREET, ASHEVILLE NC 28801
Laura C Kendall	other: Advisory Director	C/O CHARLES & COLVARD, 3800 GATEWAY BLVD #310, MORRISVILLE NC 27560
John Switzer	other: Advisory Director	BARINGS LLC, 300 SOUTH TRYON STREET, SUITE 2500, CHARLOTTE NC 28202
Sprink John Francis Ii	officer: EVP	C/O HOMETRUST BANCSHARES, INC., 10 WOODFIN STREET, ASHEVILLE NC 28801
Marty T. Caywood	officer: EVP, Chief Information Officer	HOMETRUST BANCSHARES, INC., 10 WOODFIN STREET, ASHEVILLE NC 28801
Sidney A. Biesecker	director	C/O HOMETRUST BANCSHARES, INC., 10 WOODFIN STREET, ASHEVILLE NC 28801
Hunter Westbrook	officer: SVP, Chief Banking Officer	C/O HOMETRUST BANCSHARES, INC., 10 WOODFIN STREET, ASHEVILLE NC 28801
Craig C. Koontz	director	C/O HOMETRUST BANCSHARES, INC., 10 WOODFIN STREET, ASHEVILLE NC 28801
Tony J. Vuncannon	officer: SVP, Chief Financial Officer	C/O HOMETRUST BANCSHARES, INC., 10 WOODFIN STREET, ASHEVILLE NC 28801