Hercules Capital (Hercules Capital) Predictability Rank

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What is Hercules Capital Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Hercules Capital Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Hercules Capital (Hercules Capital) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Asset Management » Hercules Capital Inc (NYSE:HTGC) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

19H:Germany 19H:Germany

Address

400 Hamilton Avenue, Suite 310, Palo Alto, CA, USA, 94301

Website

https://www.htgc.com

Hercules Capital Inc is a specialty finance company engaged in providing senior secured loans to high-growth, venture capital-backed companies in a variety of technology, life sciences, and sustainable and renewable technology industries. It invests primarily in structured debt with warrants and, to a lesser extent, in senior debt and equity investments. The company lends to and invests in portfolio companies in various technology-related industries including technology, drug discovery and development, biotechnology, life sciences, healthcare, and sustainable and renewable technology.

Executives

Nikos Theodosopoulos	director	C/O ARISTA NETWORKS, INC., 5453 GREAT AMERICA PARKWAY, SANTA CLARA CA 95054
Christian Follmann	officer: Chief Operating Officer	C/O HERCULES CAPITAL, INC., 400 HAMILTON AVENUE, SUITE 310, PALO ALTO CA 94301
Gayle A Crowell	director
Wade Loo	director	C/O HERCULES CAPITAL, INC., 400 HAMILTON AVENUE, SUITE 310, PALO ALTO CA 94301
Scott Bluestein	officer: Chief Investment Officer	303 COLUMBUS AVENUE, APT 506, BOSTON MA 02116
Deanne Aguirre	director	C/O HERCULES CAPITAL, INC., 400 HAMILTON AVENUE, SUITE 310, PALO ALTO CA 94301
Thomas J Fallon	director	C/O INFINERA CORPORATION, 140 CASPIAN COURT, SUNNYVALE CA 94089
Kiersten Zaza Botelho	officer: General Counsel & CCO	C/O HERCULES CAPITAL, INC., 400 HAMILTON AVENUE, SUITE 310, PALO ALTO CA 94301
Paramjeet K Randhawa	director	C/O HERCULES CAPITAL, INC., 400 HAMILTON AVENUE, SUITE 310, PALO ALTO CA 94301
Carol L Foster	director	C/O HERCULES CAPITAL, INC., 400 HAMILTON AVENUE, SUITE 310, PALO ALTO CA 94301
Seth H Meyer	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O HERCULES CAPITAL, INC., 400 HAMILTON AVENUE, SUITE 310, PALO ALTO CA 94301
Jorge Titinger	director	7005 SOUTHFRONT ROAD, LIVERMORE CA 94551
Doreen Woo Ho	director	C/O HERCULES CAPITAL, INC., 400 HAMILTON AVENUE, SUITE 310, PALO ALTO CA 94301
Waldt Gerard R Jr.	officer: Interim Chief Accounting Off	400 HAMILTON AVENUE SUITE 310, PALO ALTO CA 94301
Bradford C. Koenig	director	C/O GSV CAPITAL CORP., 2925 WOODSIDE ROAD, WOODSIDE CA 94062