Houston American Energy (Houston American Energy) Predictability Rank

View and export this data going back to 2002. Start your Free Trial

What is Houston American Energy Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Houston American Energy Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Houston American Energy Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Houston American Energy's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

Houston American Energy (Houston American Energy) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Energy » Oil & Gas » Houston American Energy Corp (AMEX:HUSA) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

8H6H:Germany

Address

801 Travis Street, Suite 1425, Houston, TX, USA, 77002

Website

https://www.houstonamerican.com

Houston American Energy Corp is an independent oil and gas company focused on the development, exploration, exploitation, acquisition, and production of natural gas and crude oil properties. Its properties, and operations, are in the U.S. Permian Basin, the U.S. Gulf Coast region, particularly Texas and Louisiana, and in the South American country of Colombia. The company's an exploration and development projects are focused on existing property interests, and future acquisition of additional property interests, in the Texas Permian Basin, the onshore Texas and Louisiana Gulf Coast region, and in the South American country of Colombia. The Company majorly has operations in two geographical areas, the United States and Colombia.

Executives

James A Schoonover	director	1770 COUNTY ROAD H2, WHITE BEAR TOWNSHIP MN 55110
John F Terwilliger	director, 10 percent owner, officer: President and CEO
Bitnile Holdings, Inc.	10 percent owner	11411 SOUTHERN HIGHLANDS PARKWAY, SUITE 240, LAS VEGAS NV 89141
Dyke Torbjorn Van	officer: VP - Business Development	801 TRAVIS STREET, SUITE 1425, HOUSTON TX 77002
R. Keith Grimes	director	13307 GOLDEN VALLEY DR., CYPRESS TX 77429
John P Boylan	director	450 WESTHEIMER DR., HOUSTON TX 77024
Stephen Hartzell	director	1001 MCKINNEY, SUITE 805, HOUSTON TX 77002
Roy W Jageman	director	777 MAIN STREET, C/O ENCORE ACQUISITION CO, FORT WORTH TX 76102
James J Jacobs	officer: Chief Financial Officer	801 TRAVIS, SUITE 2020, HOUSTON TX 77002
Kenneth Jeffers	officer: Senior VP of Exploration	801 TRAVIS STREET, SUITE 1425, HOUSTON TX 77002
Nokomis Capital, L.l.c.	10 percent owner	1717 MCKINNEY AVENUE, SUITE 850, DALLAS TX 75202
Brett Hendrickson	10 percent owner	300 CRESCENT COURT, SUITE 1740, DALLAS TX 75201
Orrie Lee Tawes	director, 10 percent owner	CIBC OPPENHEIMER WORLD FINANCIAL CENTER, NEW YORK NY 110281
Richard J Howe	director	73 SADDLEBROOK LN, HOUSTON TX 77024
J Alex Loftus	director	801 TRAVIS, SUITE 1425, HOUSTON TX 77002