Independent Bank (Ionia MI) (Independent Bank (Ionia MI)) Predictability Rank

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What is Independent Bank (Ionia MI) Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Independent Bank (Ionia MI) Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Independent Bank (Ionia MI) Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Independent Bank (Ionia MI) (Independent Bank (Ionia MI)) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Banks » Independent Bank Corp (Ionia MI) (NAS:IBCP) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

4200 East Beltline, Grand Rapids, MI, USA, 49525

Website

https://www.independentbank.com

Independent Bank Corp (Ionia MI) operates as a commercial bank. It offers a broad range of banking services to individuals and businesses, including checking and savings accounts, commercial lending, direct and indirect consumer financing, mortgage lending, and safe deposit box services. It also provides internet and mobile banking capabilities to its customers.

Executives

Stefanie M Kimball	officer: Executive Vice President	230 WEST MAIN STREET, IONIA MI 48846
Terance L Beia	director	4200 E BELTLINE, GRAND RAPIDS MI 49525
Archer Dennis W. Jr	director	4200 E BELTLINE, GRAND RAPIDS MI 49525
Christina Keller	director	4200 E BELTLINE AVE, GRAND RAPIDS MI 49525
James J Twarozynski	officer: Sr Vice President & Controller	201 HIGHLAND DRIVE, ROCKFORD MI 49341
Gavin A. Mohr	officer: Executive Vice President	4200 E BELTLINE, GRAND RAPIDS MI 49525
Kristopher Kreter	officer: First Vice Pres. & Controller	4200 E BELTLINE, GRAND RAPIDS MI 49525
Ronia F Kruse	director	4200 E BELTLINE, GRAND RAPIDS MI 49525
Joel F Rahn	officer: Executive Vice President	4200 E BELTLINE, GRAND RAPIDS MI 49525
William B Kessel	officer: President of Affiliate Bank	INDEPENDENT BANK CORPORATION, 230 WEST MAIN STREET, IONIA MI 48846
Matthew J Missad	director	2801 EAST BELTLINE, N.E., GRAND RAPIDS MI 49525
Patrick J Ervin	officer: Executive Vice President	4200 E BELTLINE, GRAND RAPIDS MI 49525
Dennis J Mack	officer: Executive Vice President	230 WEST MAIN STREET, IONIA MI 48846
Robert N Shuster	officer: Executive Vice President and C	201 HIGHLAND DRIVE, ROCKFORD MI 49341
Stephen A. Erickson	officer: EVP and Treasurer	1201 NETWORK CENTRE DRIVE, EFFINGHAM IL 62401