ImmuCell (ImmuCell) Predictability Rank

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What is ImmuCell Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

ImmuCell Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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ImmuCell (ImmuCell) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » ImmuCell Corp (NAS:ICCC) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

IUL:Germany

Address

56 Evergreen Drive, Portland, ME, USA, 04103

Website

https://www.immucell.com

ImmuCell Corp is engaged in the healthcare sector. The company operates in the development, acquisition, manufacture, and sale of products that improve the health and productivity of cows for the dairy and beef industries. The firm has developed products that provide immediate immunity to newborn dairy and beef cattle and is developing product line extensions of its existing products that address mastitis. Its lead product, First Defense, is manufactured to prevent scours in newborn calves. It has two segments Scours and Mastitis. The company generates the majority of its revenue from the United States.

Executives

Bryan K. Gathagan	director	56 EVERGREEN DRIVE, PORTLAND ME 04103
David Cunningham	director	56 EVERGREEN DRIVE, PORTLAND ME 04103
Gloria F Basse	director	56 EVERGREEN DRIVE, PORTLAND ME 04103
David Scott Tomsche	director	56 EVERGREEN DRIVE, PORTLAND ME 04103
Steven T. Rosgen	director	C/O IMMUCELL CORPORATION, 56 EVERGREEN DR., PORTLAND ME 04103
Norman H Pessin	other: See Explanation of Responses	C/O LEVY, HARKINS & CO., INC., 366 MADISON AVENUE, 14TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10017
Brian L. Pessin	other: See Explanation of Responses	310 EAST 75TH STREET, APT. 2A, NEW YORK NY 10021
Joseph H Crabb	director, officer: Vice President and CSO	IMMUCELL CORP, 56 EVERGREEN DRIVE, PORTLAND ME 04103
Elizabeth Luttrell Williams	officer: Vice Pres. of Mfg Operations	C/O IMMUCELL CORPORATION, 56 EVERGREEN DRIVE, PORTLAND ME 04103
Jonathan E Rothschild	director, 10 percent owner	C/O IMMUCELL CORP, 56 EVERGREEN DRIVE, PORTLAND ME 04103
Linda Rhodes	director	56 EVERGREEN DRIVE, PORTLAND ME 04103
Paul R Wainman	director	56 EVERGREEN DRIVE, PORTLAND ME 04103
Michael F Brigham	director, officer: President and CEO	IMMUCELL CORP, 56 EVERGREEN DRIVE, PORTLAND ME 04103
Bobbi Jo Kunde	other: Director of Sales and Marketin	56 EVERGREEN DRIVE, PORTLAND ME 04103
Robert C Bruce	director	56 EVERGREEN DRIVE, PORTLAND ME 04103