IDT (IDT) Predictability Rank

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What is IDT Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

IDT Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

IDT Predictability Rank Related Terms

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IDT (IDT) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Communication Services » Telecommunication Services » IDT Corp (NYSE:IDT) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

IDC2:Germany

Address

520 Broad Street, Newark, NJ, USA, 07102

Website

https://www.idt.net

IDT Corp is a multinational holding company. It primarily operates in the telecommunications and payment industries. It has four reportable business segments, Fintech, National Retail Solutions & net2phone and Traditional Communications, The Fintech segment is comprised of National Retail Solutions (NRS), an operator of a nationwide point of sale (POS) network providing payment processing, digital advertising, transaction data, and ancillary services, and BOSS Money, a provider of international money remittance and related value/payment transfer services. The net2phone segment provides unified cloud communications and telephony services to business customers.

Executives

Marcelo Fischer	officer: Chief Acct. Offcr. &Controller	IDT CORP, 520 BROAD STREET, NEWARK NJ 07102
Eric F. Cosentino	director	C/O IDT CORPORATION, 520 BROAD STREET, NEWARK NJ 07102
Joyce J Mason	director, officer: SVP and Secretary	IDT CORP, 520 BROAD STREET, NEWARK NJ 07102
Nadine Shea	officer: EVP of GLOBAL HUMAN RESOURCES	C/O IDT CORPORATION, 520 BROAD STREET, NEWARK NJ 07102
Howard S Jonas	director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chairman of the Board
Bill Pereira	officer: EVP of Finance	520 BROAD STREET, NEWARK NJ 07102
David Wartell	officer: CHIEF TECHNOLOGY OFFICER	C/O IDT CORPORATION, 520 BROAD STREET, NEWARK NJ 07102
Mitch Silberman	officer: CAO & Controller	C/O IDT CORPORATION, 520 BROAD STREET, NEWARK NJ 07102
Liora Stein	director	C/O IDT CORPORATION, 520 BROAD STREET, NEWARK NJ 07102
Judah Schorr	director	C/O IDT CORPORATION, 520 BROAD STREET, NEWARK NJ 07102
Hsj 2019 Idt Annuity Trust Ii	10 percent owner	C/O IDT CORPORATION, 520 BROAD STREET, NEWARK NJ 07102
Anthony S Davidson	officer: SVP - Technology	C/O IDT CORPORATION, 520 BROAD STREET, NEWARK NJ 07102
Bathgate Lawrence E Ii	director	C/O IDT CORPORATION, 520 BROAD STREET, NEWARK NJ 07102
Michael Chenkin	director	C/O IDT CORPORATION, 520 BROAD STREET, NEWARK NJ 07102
Menachem Ash	officer: EVP of Strategic&Legal Affairs	C/O IDT CORPORATION, 520 BROAD STREET, NEWARK NJ 07102