What is IEC Electronics Predictability Rank?
1 (5)
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
IEC Electronics Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
IEC Electronics (IEC Electronics) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
105 Norton Street, Newark, NY, USA, 14513
IEC Electronics Corp operates in an electronics contract manufacturing services (EMS) industry. It provides electronic manufacturing services to advanced technology companies primarily in the medical, industrial, aerospace and defense sectors. Its offerings include on-site analytical testing laboratories, custom design, and test engineering services. The firm also offers a broad array of manufacturing services encompassing electronics, interconnect solutions and precision metalworking. The majority of its revenue is derived from the sale of electronic products.
Executives
| Jeremy R Nowak |
director |
C/O API TECHNOLOGIES CORP ONE NORTH WACKER DRIVE SUITE 4400 CHICAGO IL 60606 |
| Charles P Hadeed |
director |
35 VANTAGE POINT DRIVE, ROCHESTER NY 14624 |
| Jeffrey T Schlarbaum |
director, officer: President and CEO |
105 NORTON STREET, NEWARK NY 14513 |
| Michael W Osborne |
director |
105 NORTON STREET NEWARK NY 14513 |
| Andrew M Laurence |
director |
C/O API TECHNOLOGIES CORP., ONE NORTH WACKER DRIVE SUITE 4400, CHICAGO IL 60606 |
| Keith M Butler |
director |
105 NORTON STREET NEWARK NY 14513 |
| Thomas L Barbato |
officer: CFO |
105 NORTON STREET, NEWARK NY 14513 |
| Lynn J Hartrick |
director |
105 NORTON STREET NEWARK NY 14513 |
| Michael Thomas Williams |
officer: VP, Finance and CFO |
54 BARCHAN DUNE RISE VICTOR NY 14564 |
| Jens Hauvn |
officer: SVP, Operations |
C/O IEC ELECTRONICS CORP. 105 NORTON STREET NEWARK NY 14513 |
| Eric Singer |
director |
323 SUNNY ISLES BLVD., SUITE 700, SUNNY ISLES BEACH FL 33160 |
| W Barry Gilbert |
officer: CEO & Chairman of the Board |
C/O IEC ELECTRONICS CORP. NEWARK NY 14513 |
| Brett Eugene Mancini |
officer: VP Bus Devel & Eng Serv |
12 SANDPIPER LANE PITTSFORD NY 14534 |
| John Carlton Johnson |
director |
24450 MEADOW ROAD PO BOX 1093 CLARK CO 80428 |
| Florence Distefano Hudson |
director |
1 WINSOR PLACE PURCHASE NY 10577 |
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