What is IEH Predictability Rank?
1 (5)
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
IEH Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
IEH (IEHC) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
140 58th Street, Suite 8E, Brooklyn, NY, USA, 11220
IEH Corp designs develops and manufactures printed circuit board (PCB) connectors, custom interconnects, and contacts for high-performance applications. With its Hyperboloid technology, It supplies durable, reliable connectors for demanding environments. The company markets to companies in defense, aerospace, space, and industrial applications, in the United States, Canada, Europe, Southeast, and Central Asia, and the Mideast. The company generates the majority of its revenue from United states.
Executives
| Subrata Purkayastha |
officer: Chief Financial Officer |
140 58TH STREET, BUILDING B SUITE 8E, BROOKLYN NY 11220 |
| Gail Offerman |
10 percent owner |
2984 WYNSUM AVENUE, MERRICK NY 11566 |
| Zeff Capital, Lp |
10 percent owner |
400 S. MCCADDEN PL., LOS ANGELES CA 90020 |
| 2020 David Offerman Trust |
10 percent owner |
17 MOHAWK TRAIL, WESTFIELD NJ 07090 |
| William H Craig |
officer: Chief Financial Officer |
|
| Daniel Zeff |
10 percent owner |
400 S. MCCADDEN PL., LOS ANGELES CA 90020 |
| Zeff Holding Company, Llc |
10 percent owner |
400 S. MCCADDEN PL., LOS ANGELES CA 90020 |
| Michael E Rosenfeld |
director |
1365 YORK AVENUE, APT. 3A, NEW YORK NY 10021 |
| Dave Offerman |
director, officer: Chief Executive Officer |
140 58TH STREET, SUITE 8E, BROOKLYN NY 11220 |
| Robert Knoth |
officer: CFO, Secretary and Treasurer |
140 58TH STREET, BLDG. B, SUITE 8E, IEH CORPORATION, BROOKLYN NY 11220 |
| Gerald E. Chafetz |
director |
C/O IEH CORP. 140 58TH STREET, BLDG. B, SUITE 8E, BROOKLYN NY 11220 |
| Michael Offerman |
director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chairman & President |
|
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