International Flavors & Fragrances (International Flavors & Fragrances) Predictability Rank

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What is International Flavors & Fragrances Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

International Flavors & Fragrances Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

International Flavors & Fragrances Predictability Rank Related Terms

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International Flavors & Fragrances (International Flavors & Fragrances) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Basic Materials » Chemicals » International Flavors & Fragrances Inc (NYSE:IFF) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

IFF:Germany IFF:Germany I1FF34:Brazil I1CE34:Brazil IFF:Austria IFF:Argentina

Address

521 West 57th Street, New York, NY, USA, 10019-2960

Website

https://www.iff.com

International Flavors & Fragrances is the largest specialty ingredients producer globally. The company sells ingredients for the food, beverage, health, household goods, personal care, and pharmaceutical industries. The company makes proprietary formulations, partnering with customers to deliver custom solutions. The nourish segment, which generates roughly half of revenue, is a leading flavor producer and also sell texturants, plant-based proteins, and other ingredients. The health and biosciences business, which generates around one fourth of revenue, is a global leader in probiotics and enzymes. IFF is also one of the leading fragrance producers in the world. The firm also sells pharmaceutical ingredients such as excipients and time-release polymers.

Executives

Yuvraj Arora	officer: President, Nourish	INTERNATIONAL FLOWERS & FRAGRANCES, 521 WEST 57TH STREET, NEW YORK NY 10019
Fauchon De Villeplee Christophe	officer: President, Scent	INTERNATIONAL FLAVORS & FRANGRANCES INC., 521 WEST 57TH STREET, NEW YORK NY 10019
Kevin O'byrne	director	INTERNATIONAL FLAVORS & FRAGRANCES, 521 WEST 57TH STREET, NEW YORK NY 10019
Dawn C Willoughby	director	1221 BROADWAY, OAKLAND CA 94612
Gaoxiang Hu	director	16690 COLLINS AVE., SUITE PH-1, SUNNY ISLES BEACH FL 33160
Mark J Costa	director	200 SOUTH WILCOX DRIVE, P.O. BOX 431, KINGSPORT TN 37660
Ralf Finzel	officer: EVP, Global Operations Officer	INTERNATIONAL FLAVORS & FRAGRANCES, 521 WEST 57TH STREET, NEW YORK NY 10019
Beril Yildiz	officer: CAO, SVP & Controller	ONE NEW YORK PLAZA, NEW YORK NY 10004
Deborah Borg	officer: EVP, Chief HR and D&I Officer	BUNGE LIMITED, 1391 TIMBERLAKE MANOR PARKWAY, CHESTERFIELD MO 63017
Francisco Fortanet	officer: SVP, Operations	521 WEST 57TH STREET, NEW YORK NY 10019
Frank Clyburn	officer: Chief Executive Officer	2000 GALLOPING HILL ROAD, KENILWORTH NJ 07033
Barry A. Bruno	director	500 CHARLES EWING BLVD, EWING NJ 08628
Glenn R Richter	officer: CFO	3333 BEVERLY ROAD, B6 277A, HOFFMAN ESTATES IL 60179
Kathryn Jean Boor	director	3736 S. MAIN STREET, MARION NY 14505
Edward D Breen	director	C/O TYCO INTERNATIONAL (US) INC, 9 WEST 57TH ST 43RD FL., NEW YORK NY 10019