InfuSystems Holdings (InfuSystems Holdings) Predictability Rank

View and export this data going back to 1992. Start your Free Trial

What is InfuSystems Holdings Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

InfuSystems Holdings Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

InfuSystems Holdings Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of InfuSystems Holdings's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

InfuSystems Holdings (InfuSystems Holdings) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Medical Devices & Instruments » InfuSystems Holdings Inc (AMEX:INFU) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

1TZ:Germany

Address

3851 West Hamlin Road, Rochester Hills, MI, USA, 48309

Website

http://www.infusystem.com

InfuSystems Holdings Inc is a United States based healthcare service provider. It offers Infusion pumps and related products and services for patients in the home, oncology clinics, ambulatory surgery centers, and other sites of care from the locations in the United States and Canada. The company provides products and services to hospitals, oncology practices and chemotherapy clinics for the treatment of various cancers, including colorectal cancer, pain management, and other disease states. The segments of the company are Integrated Therapy Services (ITS) and Durable Medical Equipment (DME) services, of which key revenue is derived from the ITS segment.

Executives

Jerod Funke	officer: EVP-Chief HR Officer	3851 WEST HAMLIN RD, ROCHESTER HILLS MI 48309
R. Rimmy Malhotra	director	C/O COMMAND CENTER, INC., 3609 S WADSWORTH BLVD., SUITE 250, LAKEWOOD CO 80235
Gregg Owen Lehman	director	309 HADDON COURT, FRANKLIN X1 37067
Richard Dilorio	officer: Executive Vice President	31700 RESEARCH PARK DRIVE, MADISON HEIGHTS MI 48071
Barry G Steele	officer: Executive VP and CFO	500 TOWN CENTER DR., SUITE 200, DEARBORN MI 48126
Carrie Lachance	officer: Executive VP and COO	31700 RESEARCH PARK DRIVE, MADISON HEIGHTS MI 48071
Christopher R. Sansone	director	C/O SANSONE ADVISORS, LLC, 151 BODMAN PLACE, SUITE 100, RED BANK NJ 07701
Addam Chupa	officer: Executive VP and CIO	3851 WEST HAMLIN ROAD, ROCHESTER HILLS MI 48309
Kevin Whitman	officer: VP and Corporate Controller	31700 RESEARCH PARK DRIVE, MADISON HEIGHTS MI 48071
Thomas Mark Ruiz	officer: VP of Sales and Marketing	31700 RESEARCH PARK DRIVE, MADISON HEIGHTS MI 48071
Boyd Ralph F Jr	director
Paul Andrew Gendron	director	740 BANDIT TRAIL, KELLER TX 76248
Jeannine Sheehan	officer: Chief Administrative Officer	31700 RESEARCH PARK DRIVE, MADISON HEIGHTS MI 48071
Blueline Capital Partners Ii, L.p.	director	3480 BUSKIRK AVENUE, SUITE 214, PLEASANT HILL CA 94523
Meridian Tsv Ii, Lp	10 percent owner	405 WEED STREET, NEW CANAAN CT 06840