Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Inland Real Estate Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
Predictables
Non-Predictable
All stocks
Total Number of stocks
570
1833
2403
Total Lost Money
61
830
891
Total Lost More Than 50%
18
412
430
Total Lost More Than 90%
4
86
90
Average Gain
260.6%
100.0%
138.1%
Median Gain
150.0%
13.0%
39.0%
Maximum Gain
2852.0%
11483.0%
11483.0%
Maximum Loss
-100.0%
-100.0%
-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain
12.7%
6.7%
8.4%
Annualized Median Gain
8.9%
1.1%
3.1%
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
Inland Real Estate Predictability Rank Related Terms
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Inland Real Estate (Inland Real Estate) Business Description
Inland Real Estate Corp was formed on May 12, 1994. It is a publicly held real estate investment trust ("REIT") that owns, operates and develops open-air neighborhood, community and power shopping centers and single-tenant retail properties located in Midwest markets. Approximately fifty-nine percent of its total retail portfolio gross leasable area is located in the Chicago Metropolitan Statistical Area, with its second largest market concentration being approximately seventeen percent in the Minneapolis-St. Paul MSA. Tenants at the Company's retail properties primarily provide "everyday" goods and services to consumers. The primary drivers of its internal income growth are rental rate increases over expiring rates on new and renewal leases and cost savings from operational efficiencies. The Company's business is competitive. It competes with other property owners on the basis of location, rental rates, operating expenses, visibility, quality of the property, volume of traffic, strength and name recognition of other tenants at each location and other factors. These competitive factors affect the level of occupancy and rental rates that it is able to achieve at its investment properties. In addition, the Company's tenants compete against other forms of retailing such as catalog companies and e-commerce websites that offer similar retail products. The Company competes with other real estate companies, and at its current investment properties, it competes with other owners of similar properties for tenants. Inland Real Estate's properties are also subject to various federal, state and local regulatory requirements, such as state and local fire and life safety requirements.
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