John Bnfilippo & Son (John Bnfilippo & Son) Predictability Rank

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What is John Bnfilippo & Son Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

John Bnfilippo & Son Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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John Bnfilippo & Son (John Bnfilippo & Son) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Defensive » Consumer Packaged Goods » John B Sanfilippo & Son Inc (NAS:JBSS) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

JO1:Germany

Address

1703 North Randall Road, Elgin, IL, USA, 60123

Website

https://jbssinc.com

John B Sanfilippo & Son Inc is one of the processors and distributors of peanuts, pecans, cashews, walnuts, almonds, and other nuts in the United States. These nuts are sold under a variety of private brands and under the Fisher, Orchard Valley Harvest, and Sunshine Country brand names. It also market and distribute, and in the majority of cases, manufacture or process, a diverse product line of food and snack products, including peanut butter, almond butter, cashew butter, candy and confections, snacks and trail mixes, snack bites, sunflower kernels, dried fruit, corn snacks, sesame sticks and other sesame snack products under private brands and brand names.

Executives

Jeffrey T Sanfilippo	director, officer: Exec VP Sales & Marketing	1703 N. RANDALL ROAD, ELGIN IL 60123-7820
James J Sanfilippo	other: Member of 13(d) Group	1703 N. RANDALL ROAD, ELGIN IL 60123-7820
Ellen Taaffe	director	1703 N. RANDALL ROAD, ELGIN IL 60123
Sanfilippo Jasper Brian Jr	officer: Exec VP, Assist. Secretary	1703 N. RANDALL ROAD, ELGIN IL 60123-7820
Lisa Evon	other: Member of 13(d) Group	1703 N. RANDALL ROAD, ELGIN IL 60123-7820
John E Sanfilippo	other: Member of 13(d) Group	1703 N. RANDALL ROAD, ELGIN IL 60123-7820
Michael J Finn	officer: VP, Corporate Controller	1703 N RANDALL ROAD, ELGIN IL 60123-7820
Gina M Lakatos	officer: VP, General Counsel, Secretary	1703 N. RANDALL ROAD, ELGIN IL 60123-7820
Julia A Pronitcheva	officer: SVP Human Resources	1703 N. RANDALL ROAD, ELGIN IL 60123-7820
Mercedes Romero	director	4221 WEST BOY SCOUT BOULEVARD, TAMPA FL 33607
Pamela Forbes Lieberman	director	3400 N.WOLF ROAD, FRANKLIN PARK IL 60131
Daniel M Wright	director	1703 N. RANDALL ROAD, ELGIN IL 60123-7820
Mathias A Valentine	director, officer: President	1703 N. RANDALL ROAD, ELGIN IL 60123-7820
Howard Brandeisky	officer: VP, Global Marketing	1703 N. RANDALL ROAD, ELGIN IL 60123
Timothy R Donovan	director	1703 N. RANDALL ROAD, ELGIN IL 60123